The Likud has regained momentum and now leads the polls after haredi (ultra-Orthodox) parties left the government this past week, according to a Maariv survey published on Friday.
The ruling party has gained two seats, bringing it to 26, while Naftali Bennett’s party dropped three seats, now holding at 22. In this scenario, neither bloc has enough seats to form a government: The current coalition holds 53 seats, while the opposition, plus Bennett, totals 57.
Even if former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot runs with a new party separate from Bennett’s, Netanyahu’s opponents still fall short of forming a new government, despite Eisenkot securing nine seats.
If elections were held today, the seat distribution would be as follows: Likud at 26 seats, up from 24; Naftali Bennett’s party at 22, down from 25; Yisrael Beytenu at 11, up from 10; The Democrats at 10 and Shas holding nine, unchanged; Yesh Atid at eight, up from seven; United Torah Judaism and Otzma Yehudit also at seven, unchanged; Blue and White at six, down from seven; Ra’am at five, down from six; Hadash-Ta’al at five, up from four; and Religious Zionism at four, unchanged.
The political map shows that neither side can form a coalition alone, with the opposition, including Bennett’s party, holding 57 seats, while the current coalition with 53. Arab parties hold an additional 10 seats, making it clear that no single bloc has enough seats to form a majority.
Should Eisenkot run independently of Bennett, the former IDF chief would gain nine seats, one more than in the previous week’s survey. In this scenario, Bennett’s party weakens, dropping to 18 seats from 22. Likud, on the other hand, strengthens, gaining three seats to reach 26. This coalition, consisting of Eisenkot’s party, Bennett’s party, and Likud, would have 52 seats, compared to 58 for the opposition parties. The reason remains the same: No crossover voting between the two camps.
Exemption from Conscription Law debate
According to the survey, 57% of Israelis believe that the exemption from conscription law promoted by Netanyahu’s government harms national security. In contrast, 32% believe the law does not harm security, while 11% are undecided.
The divide is stark between government supporters and opposition members: nearly all opposition voters (83%) are convinced that the law will harm national security. Among coalition voters, opinions are more divided: 61% believe the law will not harm security, but 31% think it could.
Gaza War and its objectives
The public is almost evenly split on whether the fighting in Gaza will achieve its objectives. Some 44% of respondents believe the fighting will not meet its goals, while slightly less (42%) are confident that it will. There is a clear divide between the two political camps: 73% of coalition voters are certain that the fighting will succeed, while 70% of opposition voters believe the objectives will not be achieved.
Regarding one of the hot topics this week – the harm to the Druze population in southern Syria and the IDF’s intervention – both political camps agree in an unusual show of unity.
Among both coalition and opposition voters, slightly more than half (51%) support military action to aid the Druze, and slightly less than half (47%) believe Israel should intervene militarily in Syria to prevent harm to the Druze population. In contrast, 27% oppose intervention, and 25% are undecided.
These findings are based on a survey conducted for Maariv by Lazar Research, led by Dr. Menachem Lazar, in collaboration with the internet organization Panel4All. The survey was conducted from July 16-17, with 506 respondents, representing a sample of Israel’s adult population, both Jewish and Arab. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 4.4%.