Likud strengthened by two seats, bringing the governing coalition to 50, following the Arab party leaders’ announcement of a joint run in the next elections and the return of the remains of the Gaza hostage, according to a Maariv poll published Friday
The survey indicated that the opposition would hold 57 seats, while the reconstituted Arab Joint List would reach 13.
The revived Joint List would win 13 seats, up from the 10 currently projected for Hadash–Ta’al and Ra’am when running separately, while Balad fails to clear the threshold, dropping the opposition from 61 to 57 seats.
The seats came at the expense of Yesh Atid, Naftali Bennett, and Gadi Eisenkot.
If elections were held today, respondents said they would vote as follows: Likud 27, up from 25; Bennett 22, down from 23; Joint List 13; “Yashar!” with Eisenkot 10, down from 11; The Democrats and Yisrael Beytenu unchanged at 9; Otzma Yehudit and Shas unchanged at 8; Yesh Atid 7, down from 9; United Torah Judaism unchanged at 7. Blue and White (2.7%), the Reservists (1.8%), and Religious Zionism (1.8%) do not pass the threshold.
A three–way merger of Bennett, Eisenkot, and Yesh Atid under Bennett’s leadership yields 37 seats, one fewer than their separate totals. In that scenario, Likud ticks up to 28, the opposition, without the 13 Joint List seats, slips by two to 55, while the coalition rises by two to 52.
Half of Israelis (49%) want elections held on schedule later this year, while another 39% prefer the earliest possible date, and 12% are undecided.
The cost of the Israel-Hamas war
Following the return of Ran Gvili’s remains, the most common view among Israelis (44%) is that Israel should have secured their return earlier to save more lives.
Some 30% stated they viewed the outcome as a major success beyond expectations, while 17% feared the price paid was too high and could incentivize future kidnappings, and 9% did not know.
The poll, conducted January 28–29, surveyed 503 respondents representing the adult population, Jewish and Arab, with a maximum sampling error of ±4.4%. Findings were reported by Maariv and compiled by Lazar Research, led by Dr. Menachem Lazar, in cooperation with Panel4All.