A US proposal for an international force continues to await approval at the UN Security Council. The longer the wait continues, the more uncertainty there is in Gaza about what may come next.
Some of these concerns are growing among friendly countries in the region that would like to see things move forward. It has been a month since the ceasefire began on October 13 and more than a month since the agreement in Sinai to end the war.
The US has put the proposal to the UN, and the question is now whether a deal can be achieved. It looks like this will need to involve Russian support, as Moscow is also on the UN Security Council.
Moscow also has its own plan. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin over the weekend.
What are regional players saying about the current US proposal?
“The draft American proposal submitted to the Security Council includes extensive details about the tasks of the International Stabilization Force that Washington wants to form to work in Gaza, with this force working in cooperation with elements of the Palestinian police, within the framework of multi-stage security arrangements,” UAE-based news site Al-Ain News reported.
“The question is not whether the [Hamas] movement will be disarmed, but who will carry out this task,” the report said, adding that “according to diplomatic sources who spoke to Al-Ain News, the latest draft of the resolution underwent three fundamental amendments, which succeeded in rallying the support of a number of Arab and Islamic countries, after intensive consultations led by Washington and its partners.”
Nevertheless, it’s clear that Israel opposes any kind of Palestinian state. Defense Minister Israel Katz said this on Sunday, and other members of the government have slammed the Palestinians.
“The indication is that implementing the Palestinian reform program and making progress in the redevelopment of Gaza could pave the way towards a credible path to Palestinian self-determination and statehood,” Al-Ain reported.
Meanwhile, there is speculation that the new transitional phase in Gaza could last up to two years.
The draft resolution at the UN includes 11 complete articles, addressing the structure of the Peace Council, the powers of the international stabilization force, transitional governance arrangements, and the required Palestinian reform program, in addition to a schedule of periodic reports to be submitted by the Peace Council to the Security Council every six months.
First, the American draft praises the role played by Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey in facilitating the ceasefire in Gaza.
The draft resolution, according to Al-Ain, also has other aspects, including a Board of Peace that would be involved in “establishing a transitional governing administration under the supervision of a non-political, technocratic Palestinian committee; launching reconstruction programs and upgrading infrastructure and vital services; coordinating humanitarian aid and preventing its diversion for any military purposes; overseeing the international stabilization force that will lead the disarmament process and prevent the rebuilding of the military infrastructure in Gaza; the resolution also authorizes member states to provide troops, equipment and funding, in addition to establishing an international fund through the World Bank to finance reconstruction.”
MEANWHILE, a report by Saudi-based news channel Al Arabiya portrayed the current division of Gaza into an IDF-controlled Yellow Line area and a second area controlled by the Palestinians as a kind of “Berlin Wall.”
“Leaks” about the next steps “have revived international and Egyptian concerns that this line could be the starting point for dividing the Strip into two separate entities, thus jeopardizing the comprehensive ceasefire agreement signed in Sharm el-Sheikh,” the report said.
What did the Egyptian sources say?
“Egyptian military and diplomatic warnings hinted at a premeditated Israeli intention to solidify this temporary military situation and transform the Yellow line into the “Berlin Wall” of the 21st century,” Al Arabiya reported. “Maj.-Gen.
Osama Mahmoud, a lecturer at the [Egyptian] Command and Staff College, explained that Israel is clearly seeking to obstruct the second phase of the Trump peace agreement that was signed in Sharm el-Sheikh on October 13.”
The Yellow Line is currently not defined, “meaning that no fixed ground markers or clear geographical coordinates were placed,” the report said.
This is not completely accurate, as the IDF has put up some markers in Gaza. Nevertheless, it reflects the position or concerns in Egypt and elsewhere.
A person familiar with the matter said there were “repeated Israeli violations of the agreement, [and] the inability to hand over the remains of the bodies, in addition to the crisis of the stranded Hamas fighters, are merely flimsy pretexts aimed primarily at prolonging the stay of the Israeli forces in the sector and consolidating their military position at this ambiguous line,” the report added.
In essence, there is concern about what is termed “de facto partition” of Gaza.
“For his part, former Egyptian ambassador to Israel Atef Salem warned of the Yellow Line, indicating that there are numerous signs pointing to the de facto division of Gaza into two areas: one under Israeli control and the other controlled by Hamas,” Al Arabiya reported. “In statements to Al-Arabiya.net/Al-Hadath.net, Salem noted that the reconstruction process, according to statements by US Vice President Vance and Jared Kushner, will be limited to the area under Israeli control, even if the second phase of the agreement is not implemented. He added that the reconstruction plan lacks any clear timelines or implementation mechanisms, and that the process is consistently linked to the disarmament of Hamas.”
European officials are also said to be concerned. They would prefer to see the Palestinian Authority play a role.
“They do not expect the Trump plan to progress beyond a ceasefire,” Al Arabiya reported, citing Reuters. “They also warned last week that in the absence of a major effort by the United States to break the deadlock, the Yellow Line appears likely to become the de facto border dividing Gaza indefinitely.”