IDI expert weighs if joint lists pose threat to Netanyahu ahead of Israel's elections - interview

Professor Gideon Rahat, a senior fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute’s Political Reform Program, explained the implications of such alliances and how they may impact the outcome of the next elections, in a conversation with The Jerusalem Post this week.

Forming joint electoral lists among separate parties is a well-established practice in Israeli politics. In the most recent elections, several such alliances entered the Knesset, including Hadash-Ta’al and United Torah Judaism.

Alliances have been known to be formed only to often be dissolved later.

Rahat first emphasized that in Israel, alliances between parties should not be confused with unification.

“Sometimes people use it [joint lists] to say the party is unified. It’s not true,” Rahat said.

“When parties run together in elections, the only thing that happens is that they make an alliance and split the positions on a single list. In Israel, elections are based on party lists. If a list wins, for example, ten seats, the first ten candidates on that list enter the Knesset.”

Such alliances can be purely technical, often used as a tactical move to help smaller parties pass the electoral threshold, which currently stands at 3.25% of valid votes, Rahat said.

Beyond the technical aspect, Rahat noted that joint lists can also influence voter perception, shaping how the public views the parties involved and whether they feel motivated to support them.

Two developments involving potential mergers took place last week among opposition parties.

When it comes to opposition parties competing directly with Netanyahu, Rahat argued that remaining separate may actually offer strategic advantages.

Israeli voters tend to prefer a broader range of parties that reflect their specific ideological views, he explained.

“The opposition has to give voters a nice menu,” Rahat said.

“You have to the left, the Democrats. A more liberal party, like Yair Lapid [Yesh Atid], and more right-wing parties, like Bennett’s.”

Rahat also explained that the opposition parties remaining separate from one another may complicate Netanyahu’s campaign tactics.

“Netanyahu is very good at fighting one-on-one in elections,” Rahat said.

“To run a negative campaign against four different parties would be really hard. So for the opposition, it’s better to run as at least three or four different forces challenging Netanyahu.”

For Arab parties, however, Rahat said the strategy is different, and running separately could significantly damage their votes in the elections.

“The Arab public likes the idea of a Joint List,” he explained, adding that unification is often what allows all four parties to pass the electoral threshold.

Rahat said that Balad would likely fail to cross the electoral threshold without being part of the Joint List.

“When the Arab parties come together, it’s not only that they have better chances of passing the threshold,” Rahat said. “We’ve also learned that it mobilizes voters.”

“Instead of a 45%-50% turnout, a joint list can raise turnout to 60%-65%.”

“So when the Arab parties run together, they know they will pass the threshold, and they also know they can significantly increase voter participation.”

The Joint Bloc, once made up of the four Arab parties, began to break apart ahead of the 2021 elections after Ra’am left the alliance. Then, in a dramatic last-minute split in 2022, Balad broke off from the two remaining factions and filed a separate list.

Currently, the two Arab-Israeli parties in the Knesset are Ra’am and Hadash-Ta’al - the latter a reduced Joint List that agreed to run together in the 2022 election. In 2021, the Ra’am Party joined the coalition during the Naftali Bennett-Yair Lapid government, marking the first time an Arab party was a formal member of a governing coalition.

In recent months, opposition parties have widely rejected sitting with Arab parties in the next government.