Israelis are seeking answers as to why Iranian ballistic missiles have been able to hit Tel Aviv, Beersheba, Haifa, and other cities over the past week, despite Israel's technological superiority.
The IDF operates a multi-layered air defense system, has been striking missile launch and storage sites in Iran daily since Operation Rising Lion began last Friday, and manages a complex interception policy on the Home Front based on priorities and risks.
However, Iranian deception tactics, the scale of the ballistic missile barrages, operational maneuvering, and constraints on the ground in Israel make it impossible to provide airtight defenses.
The IDF successfully dismantled the trajectory system in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon and is on its way to execute a similar move across Iran. This, though, involves both offensive and defensive actions.
On the offensive side, the IDF's Intelligence Directorate shifts the focus daily and around the clock, working alongside the Israel Air Force to carry out strikes on several varieties of targets, including hundreds of ballistic missile launchers, the ballistic missiles themselves, warehouses, and production sites, with attacks on mobile batteries carried out in real time.
Meanwhile, missile and rocket defense is divided into several layers, as part of a multi-layered system that includes Iron Dome, Arrow 2 and Arrow 3, David's Sling, and other technological systems for both detection and interception of missiles and rockets.
Alongside this, the US Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) air defense batteries have been deployed in Israel and US Navy ships equipped with the Aegis Combat System are operating nearby.
At the same time, the IDF carries out daily interception policy revisions for missiles, or in other words, how to manage the defense of sensitive sites, population concentrations, and national infrastructure, including what should be prioritized. Additionally, the IDF must consider how to deal with a variety of threats.
Responsibility for real-time responses lies with the IDF's air defense unit commanders, who must decide in the shortest timeframes what to intercept, how to intercept, and how many interceptors to send towards a target.
These are complex calculations in the decision-making process, with many variables, which point to the significant effort to defend, and on the other hand, why creating a completely airtight defense is not achievable.
At this point, it is clear that Iran is trying to outsmart the IDF, find weak points, and implement various methods to breach the air defense systems.
But how does this manifest in reality, and why is the IDF unable to intercept all of Iran's surface-to-surface missiles, despite Israel's technological superiority?
Large barrages of missiles
At the start of the escalation with Israel, Iran launched large barrages towards several areas, mainly population centers, to cause destruction, kill, and damage critical infrastructure.
However, over time, the scale of the launches decreased and included single missile launches.
Therefore, the Iranians try to create barrages, sometimes unsuccessfully, to locate the interception systems by launching multiple threats at once.
Challenging to locate mobile launchers
A major challenge for IDF Intelligence and IAF is locating mobile missile batteries in Iran, which include missiles on trucks that move around and wait for launch orders, as opposed to stationary launch sites.
IDF Intelligence and IAF, primarily through the use of drones, have had significant successes in hunting such launchers across Iran, but the challenge remains.
Various types of missiles
Since the escalation began, Iran has launched a variety of missiles.
The primary difference has been in the warhead used. The larger the warhead, the shorter the range of the missile.
Iran has also used missiles with different engine systems to challenge Israel's air defense systems with aerial maneuvers and differing warheads.
Most of the missiles launched had blast warheads to increase the radius of destruction, but there was also the use of warheads containing cluster-bombs, dozens of small, detachable, and dispersible munitions.
This last type was used in the hit on Beersheba.
Security sources do not rule out surprises caused by munitions that the IDF in unfamiliar with.
Security officials have also claimed that Iranian scientists have successfully integrated advanced technology in missile production, including pre-programmed attack plans, and GPS-jamming systems.
Simultaneously attacking multiple areas
Iran has proven that they are capable of launching missiles from multiple regions across Iran towards several regions in Israel simultaneously.
This complicates the calculations and divides the attention of the IDF's air defense system commanders.
Economic ramifications
While the IDF likely has the leeway to receive more interceptors from the US, the amount of interceptors available is limited, so logic and risk management must be applied to each barrage, while assessing the landing locations and threat. Further, purchasing each interceptor costs Israel's defense budget tens-of-thousands of dollars, which also plays a factor.
On the other hand, the IDF is careful to strike Iranian missile production sites and weapon storage depots to increase the gaps between Israel's interceptor capacity and Iran's missile stockpiles.