Less than half of Israelis believe that Hamas is likely to relinquish control of the Gaza Strip and hand power over to a multinational ruling body, a survey conducted by the Israel Democracy Institute revealed on Monday.
The survey asked over 700 Jewish and Arab Israelis over the age of 18 a variety of questions regarding the end of the Israel-Hamas War, the ongoing release of hostages from Hamas captivity in Gaza, and the United States-brokered Gaza deal.
According to the study, two-thirds of the sampled participants thought that there is a “low likelihood that the next stage of the agreement, which includes distancing Hamas from control of Gaza and establishing a multinational ruling body, will be implemented soon.”
Jewish Israeli participants, 72.5% held this doubt, while only 37% of Arab Israelis shared the same low expectation.
A deal could have been reached sooner
A majority of surveyed Arab and Jewish individuals agreed across demographics that a similar ceasefire-hostage deal could have been reached earlier in the war.
Within the Jewish Israeli demographic, however, there were large discrepancies between political groups. 93% of left-leaning Jews responded that a similar deal could have been reached earlier, while only 44% of right-leaning Jews shared the sentiment.
Factors contributing to the ceasefire deal
Researchers also asked respondents about various factors and how they contributed to reaching a deal.
The biggest contributing factor, according to participants, was US President Donald Trump. Nearly all participants (95%) believed he contributed positively, with an overwhelming majority, 77.5%, stating that Trump “very much” contributed.
The second most popular contributing factor was military pressure in Gaza, with 78% agreeing on the IDF’s positive contribution to the implementation of the deal.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s contribution was ranked second-to-last, with only half of the participants attributing the deal's success to him.
When it comes to whose interests were best served by the deal, the majority of Jewish respondents, 51%, believed that Israel’s interests were best served. A similar portion of Arab participants, 50%, responded that the interests of both Israel and Hamas were served equally.
Israeli response to ceasefire violations
Concerns regarding Hamas' commitment to the ceasefire were further expressed in response to a query asking what Israel’s response should be if Hamas does not uphold its end of the deal.
The two most popular options across all participants were to prioritize increasing military pressure. Approximately 39% were in support of just increasing military pressure, and 37% supported prioritizing the implementation of stronger sanctions against Hamas, paired with re-restricting the entry of humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip. Just 15% of the total sample believed that Israel should continue to implement the deal to avoid further escalation.
The results of Jewish Israelis mirrored those of the general sample, with the same two options at 45% and 42%.
Arab Israelis overwhelmingly, at 56%, expressed that Israel should place emphasis on avoiding escalation, with the two most generally popular options seeing only 10% and 12.5% of interest.
'Very good' and hopeful national mood
Despite concerns about the ceasefire's possible fragility, demographics generally expressed hope that the agreement bodes well for Israel’s future on the international stage. Over half (53%) of Jewish Israelis and 47% of Arab Israelis felt that “the signing of the agreement and the ceasefire help improve Israel’s international standing in the foreseeable future” to a large or very large extent.
A majority of surveyed Arab and Jewish individuals agreed across demographics that a similar ceasefire-hostage deal could have been reached earlier in the war.
Within the Jewish Israeli demographic, however, there were large discrepancies between political groups. Among left-leaning Jewish Israelis, 93% said a similar deal could have been reached earlier, while only 44% of right-leaning Jews shared that sentiment.
Overall, surveyed participants reported that the national mood of Israel has been trending positively, with 57.5% of responses stating that the mood is “fairly good or very good.” This was a massive increase from a similar previous study, in which 71% of participants deemed the national mood “fairly poor or very poor.”