The US launched strikes against ISIS in Nigeria on Christmas Day. The attacks targeted ISIS and possibly other extremist groups that threaten Christians in Nigeria.
For years, extremist groups such as Boko Haram have been carrying out atrocities in northern Nigeria. This is part of a larger problem across the Sahel in Africa, where various terrorist groups operate.
US troops were killed in Niger in October 2017. An ambush of the US special operation forces and their Niger colleagues led to the deaths of four Americans.
“Tonight, at my direction as Commander in Chief, the United States launched a powerful and deadly strike against ISIS Terrorist Scum in Northwest Nigeria, who have been targeting and viciously killing, primarily, innocent Christians, at levels not seen for many years, and even Centuries,” US President Donald Trump posted on social media when announcing the recent attacks on ISIS in Nigeria. “I have previously warned these Terrorists that if they did not stop the slaughtering of Christians, there would be hell to pay, and tonight, there was. The Department of War executed numerous perfect strikes, as only the United States is capable of doing.
“Under my leadership, our Country will not allow Radical Islamic Terrorism to prosper. May God bless our Military, and MERRY CHRISTMAS to all, including the dead Terrorists, of which there will be many more if their slaughter of Christians continues.”
Can the US roll back ISIS?
The strikes have raised eyebrows. The US had said over the last year that it was paying attention to Nigeria and the attacks on Christians. ISIS, Boko Haram, and other groups have not only killed Christians, they have also massacred Muslims.
The challenge is that Nigeria appears unable to stop the chaos. This has been a problem that has gone on for years.
It is not clear if airstrikes can actually roll back ISIS and other groups. This is because precision airstrikes, using munitions such as Tomahawk cruise missiles, are not always a game changer on a battlefield.
This is especially true when targeting lightly armed terrorist groups that operate in a loose fashion without a clear command and control or infrastructure that can be hit.
“Camps run by the group in Sokoto state were hit near the border with Niger, the US military said,” the BBC reported. “Casualty numbers are unclear, but both US and Nigerian officials say militants were killed.”
Nigerian Foreign Minister Yusuf Maitama Tuggar told the BBC it was a “joint operation” with Nigeria.
The strikes had been planned for some time, the report said, adding that “a local official in the Tangaza area of Sokoto state, Isa Salihu Bashir, told the BBC the strikes had ‘hit some Lakurawa terrorist camps.’ He said many fighters had been killed, but the death toll was unclear.”
A Key question is, will the strikes continue? The extremist groups in Nigeria won’t be defeated by a handful of cruise missiles. They also may think the US won’t continue with its efforts.
As such, they may seek to call what they see as an American bluff. They likely recall that the US also carried out strikes on the Houthis, and that the US then stopped these attacks.
The Trump administration has been willing to use air power around the world, including strikes on Iran and also on drug-cartel boats. Nevertheless, the US appears reluctant to carry out more than airstrikes.
The Nigeria “attacks marked a major escalation in an offensive that the West African nation’s overstretched military has struggled with for years,” the Australian Broadcasting Commission reported.
Whether this is an escalation remains a question. Unless more is done, then not much may change in Nigeria.
This is the same question that is being asked about US airstrikes on ISIS. This month, the US carried out wide-ranging strikes, alongside Jordan, on ISIS in Syria. Dozens of targets were hit with some 100 munitions.
Many of the targets, however, appear to have been rural sites that may not have had many ISIS fighters in them. The strikes were important to show the US will respond to ISIS attacks.
An attack on US forces working with Syrian colleagues near Palmyra killed two US soldiers and an interpreter in mid-December. The strikes were designed to show the US will fight back.
As in Nigeria, however, the strikes may lack a follow-up. Also, ISIS in Syria only has an estimated 2,000 fighters widely scattered across the desert areas of the country.
It’s hard to defeat men hiding in caves by just using airstrikes. Israel learned this in Gaza as well. Despite Israel sending in five divisions into Gaza, Hamas has remained.
Countries will be watching to see what the US does in Nigeria and other areas of Africa. ISIS and other groups operate in many countries in Africa, including Mozambique.
In addition, these terrorist groups have eaten away at many states that border the Sahel. This includes a swath of countries from East to West Africa.
With increased focus on Africa, in part due to Israel’s recognition of Somaliland and massacres in Sudan, there are many questions about what comes next.