Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s statement last September that worldwide hostility to Israel could force it to become a globally isolated “super-Sparta” with “autarkic features” – meaning little or no engagement with international trade – is mistaken and unfeasible, at least when it comes to feeding the nation.
A new Hebrew University of Jerusalem (HUJI) study has revealed that while Israel could technically sustain itself through local vegetative food production, the economic price would be staggering. The model shows that complete self-sufficiency would demand massive farming subsidies and major shifts in agricultural output, making it an impractical goal. Instead, Prof. Iddo Kan, Prof. Israel Finkelshtain, doctoral student Yehuda Slater, and Prof. Aron Troen of the Robert Smith Faculty of Agriculture, Food and Environment argued for a balanced approach, combining agricultural innovation, diversified import sources, and strategic food storage, saying this path would offer the most sustainable path to national food security.
When wars, pandemics, and trade disruptions shake global markets, one question becomes urgent for every nation: Can we feed ourselves? The study offers an answer – and a warning. “Achieving full food self-sufficiency in Israel is technically possible –but only for plant-based foods intended for human consumption, not for livestock feed. Thus, during a severe import blockade, Israel’s food system could sustain a vegetarian population, but not maintain its current levels of animal-based production,” they insisted.
Many countries are dependent on food imports
There is nothing shameful about this reliance on other countries for some types of food, Kan told The Jerusalem Post. “Israel is similar to other relatively rich countries that are highly dependent on food imports like Belgium, Cyprus, Iceland, Japan, Malta, the Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.”
Their study, which has just been published in the journal Food Policy, is titled “Economic analysis of food self-sufficiency: modeling and application to the case of Israel.”
“Our study is an important contribution even to advanced countries that can learn from the Israeli experience,” Kan added, noting that there are fewer than 10 countries in the world that supply all of the food they need. In crisis, the costs of food rise, so farmers in exporting nations sell more abroad – but then, there’s usually a shortage in their own countries, causing governments to put limits on exports and raising prices even more.”
The Hebrew University agricultural economist stated that “it’s hard to depend fully even on growing our own fruits and vegetables. We can support our farmers, but the government has been talking about it for a long time. We still export specialty foods like avocados, dates, and flowers; our farmers are always looking for things that are more profitable. We have been able to provide them earlier in the season because our weather is warmer, but these countries are themselves becoming hotter, so they are starting to grow them by themselves.” Israel has to import grains like soy, rice, and corn for human consumption.
The commission is a group of scientists that developed the “Planetary Health Diet” to create a food system that is healthful for both people and the planet. Its work, which was updated this year, provides scientific targets for feeding a growing global population by 2050. Its recommendations involve a significant increase in plant-based foods like fruits, vegetables, and legumes, and a decrease in foods like red meat, sugar, and processed foods. Food storage and extended agricultural resources can reduce self-sufficiency costs.
“Food self-sufficiency is often viewed as a symbol of national resilience,” noted Kan, the study’s lead author from HUJI’s Department of Environmental Economics and Management. “But our findings show that pursuing full autarky would demand vast public subsidies, reduce farm diversity, and severely impact the economic welfare of producers and consumers alike.”
The study shows that increasing self-sufficiency would require diverting agricultural resources away from Israel’s strengths – fresh fruits and vegetables – toward storable crops such as cereals, oils, and legumes. While these crops require less water and labor, they are land-intensive, making arable land the key limiting factor.
Under current conditions, reaching full self-sufficiency would result in an annual welfare loss of approximately $1.5 billion, with farmers bearing most of the burden. Subsidizing such a policy, the authors warn, would require government spending exceeding the sector’s total annual profits. This finding underscores the urgency of forward-looking planning as Israel’s population grows.
Beyond the economic findings, the study provides a framework for policymakers to weigh trade-offs between self-sufficiency, food security, and sustainability. It suggests that a balanced strategy, combining local production, storage of staple crops, agricultural innovation, and diversified imports, offers the most viable path forward.
The research comes at a crucial moment. Recent global and regional crises, from the COVID-19 pandemic to the disruptions in Red Sea shipping, have exposed Israel’s vulnerability to external shocks. When such crises around the world threaten their local food supply, major food-exporting countries often respond by restricting food exports, causing further disruption to global food supplies and food-price inflation, they wrote.
“This occurred during the 2007/8 and 2010/11 food-price spikes and during the Russia-Ukraine war. These events have intensified attention to the fragility of international food-supply systems, and to the ongoing debate over two opposing views on how to best secure a nation’s food supply.”
Their model has already been incorporated into the National Plan for Food Security 2050, initiated by the Agriculture and Food Security Ministry, serving as a key decision-making tool for future food policies.
Kan concluded that “our goal isn’t to argue against local agriculture, far from it. It’s to help design smarter policies that strengthen national food security without undermining the very farmers we depend on.”