He is an enigma and that is one of his greatest strengths. Adversaries cannot easily track his statements or his actions. They can find no logical calculation to determine how he will act or react. He loves burgers, salty snacks, and does not drink alcohol. The glass he lifts in toasts to prime ministers, premiers, and kings is filled with Diet Coke.
His name is Donald J. Trump. His signature style – honed after years in the world of business and the political leadership arena is, put simply, unpredictability. He likes it that way. It is one of the secrets of his success as a president and as a negotiator.
Trump uses unpredictability as a tool. Other tools in his arsenal are escalation, coercion, public threats, and maximal bargaining positions. He wields his tools deftly and, usually, achieves his goals.
All that being said, President Donald J. Trump has a strategic plan for the Middle East, seldom deviating from his policy or strategy. The present situation in Israel and Iran is no exception. It would behoove those analyzing his actions, offering advice, or making decisions about their own actions and commitments in the region to study this president and understand the strategy of today’s most influential leader.
His overriding objective now is to apply so much pressure on Iran that it reshapes the entire region, moving the Persian nation out of position and stripping this once powerful nation of any influence.
Secondary is Trump’s desire to deepen Arab-Israeli normalization, reduce the military presence of the United States in the area, draw the distinction between ideology and diplomacy and not allow one to dominate the other, and use economics and commercial incentives to achieve goals.
In achieving those objectives, Trump will have removed Iran as a tyrannical and looming influence in the Muslim world, creating a regional order that has at its core the Abraham Accords. The interactions between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco are already in place and have been since Trump’s first term in office. Adding Syria, Egypt, Jordan, and other anti-Iranian players would create an expanded Abraham Accords and transform the region, thereby securing the safety of Israel.
Key to the success already achieved by Trump was removing the sine qua non of first solving the Palestinian issue before entering into any agreements with Muslim countries.
Trump understands the threat from Iran
Trump understood that pointing out, taking advantage of, and eliminating the real regional threat of Iran’s demand for Islamic dominance at all costs would unify the area and shift the balance. With that made clear, Israel is now no longer seen as their biggest threat. Iran is. Israel became not an obstacle but an ally perfectly situated to help economically and militarily – an ally that does not hesitate to act in defense.
Granted, this strategy has risks. It did not foresee the Iranian regime’s resilience. Moreover, it runs the risk of luring China and Russia into the game as supporters of Iran and its proxies in defiance of the United States and Israel. That could lead to instability in the oil market. And so, the US president is squeezing in meetings with China and Russia.
Gulf monarchies appreciate Trump’s never-before-tried approach. They like that Israel, the well-armed Jewish state, is involved. They appreciate that this strategy is based on action rather than the empty words they have been hearing over these many years. And they are relieved to realize that the Iranian regime has suffered and that, regardless of what later emerges, the region is safer in the short term. The long term is another question.
Trump’s unpredictability creates leverage. The ripple effect is gargantuan. It will defang China and Russia, ripping their influence out of most of the Middle East. It will cement Israel as the most significant factor in military and intelligence. It will expand the Abraham Accords. It will expand financial power within the region as a whole.
And it will impress on the region and on the world that the United States does not sit back, watch, and give advice from a distance. The United States has the will and the way, has the power and the determination to influence and protect its greater interests.
There is no doubt that Israel is safer today than it was pre-February 27, 2026, when the first proverbial shots were fired over Iran. We know that the situation is far from over. And we also know that Trump is not leaving office anytime soon. He is not an advocate of protracted dealmaking, but he knows what needs to be done. We cannot predict his next moves, but we know that he has them.
The writer is a columnist and a social and political commentator. Watch his TV show Thinking Out Loud on JBS.