The main assumption behind China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is that economic connectivity can be insulated from geopolitics. The war with Iran is not just a regional conflict; it strikes at the structural heart of the BRI vision by showing that the BRI corridors are deeply impacted by regional security shocks.
The BRI is an ambitious, multi-year Chinese program involving up to 150 countries in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. It aims at securing stable flows of goods and services to and from China. The BRI was designed to pave the road for China to become the leading superpower of the 21st century. It was launched in 2013, with an investment of $1 trillion dollars, which is expected to grow, over time, to $4-$5 trillion.
Iran was a central hub in the BRI China-Middle East corridor, where it served as a land bridge linking Central Asia to the Middle East and Europe. Along with other key countries in this corridor (Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Egypt), the BRI invested in oil and gas infrastructure, ports, industrial zones, logistic hubs, etc., providing critical energy for the entire network while serving as a keystone for China’s westward expansion.
The effects of the war on the BRI
The war with Iran is affecting the BRI at three levels. First, it directly disrupts a key node (Iran). Chinese projects in Iran (rail, ports, energy) face uncertainty, suspension, or destruction; infrastructure corridors tied to Iran are now high-risk or unusable.
Second, China depends heavily on Gulf energy, much of it passing through the Strait of Hormuz, which is now blocked by Iran. This hits the economic foundation of BRI (cheap energy + trade stability).
Third, the war creates a spillover of instability across other countries involved in the BRI. Chinese investments in the Gulf states (ports, smart cities, liquefied natural gas, infrastructure) are now exposed to military escalation risk and energy shortages.
The disruptions linked to the war are affecting the entire Southeast Asia region. The war also makes the alternative land and ocean routes that pass through Pakistan and India more important. That increases the pressure already existing between these countries, leading to potential renewal of military conflicts between them.
Security risks are threatening infrastructure
The strategic consequence of the war is the collapse of core BRI assumptions. It shows that security risks threaten infrastructure, that neutrality is hard to maintain, and that investments are exposed to military escalation.
While the war is not expected to totally block the BRI, it will certainly have some major implications for it. China can be expected to shift from expansion to risk management. It is already stockpiling energy, restricting exports, and reducing exposure to unstable regions. The war weakens the “Iran corridor,” since Iran can no longer function as a stable anchor, and the overland routes to the Middle East become unreliable.
Instead, the BRI is likely to increase its reliance on alternative routes through Central Asia – Russia (despite Ukraine war complications) and maritime routes via Southeast Asia.
Instead of one integrated system, the BRI is likely to experience increased fragmentation into regional “mini corridors” with more selective investments. Thus, the war doesn’t just slow BRI – it forces China to rethink the entire concept from expansion to resilience.
The writer is an emeritus professor at the Technion-Israel Institute of Technology, where he has served in various leadership positions. He also serves as a member of the Board and as a strategic consultant to some companies and organizations.