When airlines start cancelling flights, it usually means something has already happened. This time, they are cancelling flights to Israel because of something that might.
The mere possibility that the United States could strike Iran - and that Iran might respond - has once again frozen the region. Even with the war officially over, the Middle East remains so volatile that anticipation alone is enough to trigger disruption.
For Israel, this volatility carries strategic implications.
The first unknown, as of the time of the writing of this column, Thursday afternoon, is whether President Donald Trump will order military action against Iran.
The range of options is wide. On one end, he could authorize limited strikes against police units, Basij forces, or IRGC elements directly involved in the violent suppression of protesters.
Israel could conduct strikes against the Iranian regime
On the other end, we could end up seeing a far more dramatic move: strikes aimed at decapitating Iran’s leadership - senior IRGC commanders, the president, perhaps even the supreme leader himself.
Which path Trump chooses remains unclear. And that uncertainty is precisely what has placed the entire region on alert.
Then comes the next question: how will Iran respond?
Will Tehran retaliate against Gulf states, reviving the playbook it used in its 2019 drone and missile attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities? Will it strike American military assets across the region, as it did when it fired missiles at the al-Udeid airbase in Qatar during the 12-day war in June? Or will it turn its fire directly on Israel, launching long-range ballistic missiles at Israeli cities and air bases?
And if that happens, does one escalation lead to the next one? Does one round lead to another? Or does each side absorb a blow, declare deterrence restored, and step back from the precipice?
These are not theoretical questions; they are exactly what officials are war-gaming right now in capitals across the Middle East and beyond since trump announced aid for the Iranian people is on its way.
For Trump, the impulse to take action comes from a desire to distinguish himself from his predecessors.
Both Barack Obama and Joe Biden faced moments when brave Iranians poured into the streets to protest the regime, and while both offered verbal support, neither took real action.
Years later, Obama expressed regret over his decision not to do more during the 2009 Green Movement.
Trump wants to send a different message: when he speaks, people listen, and when he threatens, he follows through.
Whether that is enough to catalyze regime change, or whether it is meant primarily to project American strength and credibility, remains to be seen.
For Israel, however, the opportunity is twofold.
First, while Israelis watch and hope that the Iranian people succeed in toppling a regime that has oppressed them for decades, the turmoil itself weakens Iran’s ability to recover. Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs suffered devastating blows in June. Continued internal instability makes rebuilding those programs much harder.
There is, of course, a counter-risk: a regime that survives may conclude that nuclear weapons are the exact insurance policy that it needs to prevent any foreign intervention in the future. Nevertheless, developing such a capability while struggling to calm an angry public is not simple.
More broadly, for Israel, this moment exposes a truth Israel has been arguing for years.
Look at Columbia University or Harvard Yard as well as the streets of Paris, London, and Sydney. There are no mass protests calling what the ayatollahs are doing genocide. No one is chanting to “globalize” the protests. There is barely any moral outrage and no marches in support of the innocent Iranians being killed by their own government.
Contrast that with the fury unleashed when Israel defends itself in a war forced upon it. And while the hypocrisy is hard to ignore, it is also clarifying.
For those willing to see it, the true source of instability in the Middle East is undeniable. Behind October 7, behind Hezbollah, and behind Hamas has always been Iran. If that reality was not clear before, it should be now.
Notably, criticism of Israel appears to have declined in recent weeks. Whether this is measurable or anecdotal, the shift is palpable. There is growing recognition that Israel was not the aggressor in this war, but its victim.
That matters. It strengthens Israel’s strategic posture ahead of renewed conflict, which many in the defense establishment believe is inevitable. Hezbollah continues to refuse to disarm in the north and in Gaza; few in Israel believe Hamas will simply disappear without another round of fighting, despite optimism in Washington.
The second opportunity emerges if Iran chooses to retaliate against Israel directly.
At the end of the 12-day war in June, Israeli fighter jets were already en route to Iran when Trump called Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and instructed him to turn them back, following an Iranian missile strike that had violated the ceasefire.
Even then, it was clear that significant targets remained untouched - ballistic missile infrastructure, elements of the nuclear program, naval assets, ground forces, and key regime institutions.
If Iran attacks Israel now, it provides Jerusalem with the legitimacy and justification to act decisively and without restraint.
During the June war, Defense Minister Israel Katz openly raised the possibility of regime change, only to be shut down by Washington. This would be a very different moment. Israel has already demonstrated air superiority over Iran. Reestablishing it would not be overly complex.
Which is why, as the region once again stands on the precipice, the West, including Israel, cannot afford to be passive. Crises do not last forever, and the windows they open close fairly quickly. They either translate into strategic gains or become missed opportunities.
As the saying goes, a crisis should never be wasted. The question now is whether the world will recognize this one in time.
The writer is a co-founder of the MEAD policy forum, a senior fellow at JPPI, and a former editor-in-chief of The Jerusalem Post. His newest book is While Israel Slept.