Iran was caught by surprise when Israel carried out strikes early Friday morning. The war is now in its fourth day, and Tehran continues to be taken by surprise and is unable to respond to the attacks. Why is the Islamic Republic reeling so much from a war that was long discussed and that it threatened for years?
The day before Israel’s attacks, the head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hossein Salami, had said that the country was “fully prepared” for any scenario. How could he have gotten things so wrong? Was Tehran prepared? It doesn’t appear to have been prepared, as Salami was killed in the first Israeli strikes, along with other key commanders.
Although the Islamic Republic replaced the commanders quickly, it took hours for it to get its ballistic missiles ready for launch. Over the last four days, it has lost some of its missile arsenal and the launchers needed to fire the missiles.
Iran's missile arsenal
This is a major blow to Iran. Without the ballistic missiles, Iran doesn’t seem to have a good way to strike at Israel.
The Islamic Republic likely had thousands of missiles capable of reaching Jerusalem, and the type and quality of these missiles have grown over the years. Some of these could have also been sent to Iranian-backed militias in Iraq. However, Iran still has a limited number of long-range missiles.
As some of the depots and stocks of the missiles are destroyed, that number dwindles. As the launchers are eliminated, it is harder to position them for launch.
Why would a country rely only on its missiles for a war? No war in history has been won solely by missiles. Russia has used missiles and Iranian-style drones for attacks on Ukraine, and Moscow has not won the war.
The Islamic Republic also has its drone arsenal for attacks on Israel. These are relatively small drones, and they also do not appear to pose a major threat. Most Iranian drones have been shot down on the way to Israel. Even if Tehran has thousands of them, it appears the drones’ wings have been clipped.
Losing an 'in' to Israel
IRAN’S FAILURE to understand the war it was entering into is historic. It had threatened to destroy Israel for years, but it didn’t seem to have gamed out how to do this.
Once Israel weakened Hezbollah in 2024, Tehran didn’t change its calculations. The Lebanese terror group was supposed to provide it with a front line against Israel, part of a multi-front war that included Hamas, the Houthis, and other groups, such as militias in Iraq. Without the Hezbollah front, the Islamic Republic had fewer options.
When the Assad regime fell on December 8, 2024, Iran lost another key ally in the region. Without Assad and Hezbollah, Tehran has no direct border with Israel.
It has tried to place proxy groups in the West Bank, and it backed the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7. However, Hamas is much weaker, and the proxy groups in the West Bank, such as Palestinian Islamic Jihad, are no match for Jerusalem. The Islamic Republic has also tried to threaten the Jewish state via Jordan, but it has not succeeded.
Iran’s navy and air force are too weak to confront Israel. Its army may be large, but it can’t get to its enemy.
Tehran was also taken by surprise by Saddam Hussein’s 1980 invasion at the start of the Iran-Iraq War. The Islamic Republic relied on human wave attacks and attrition to defeat the superior Iraqi army. It also carried out what was called the “war of the cities,” attacking Iraqi cities, as it has done to Israel, and striking ships in the Persian Gulf.
However, Israel is not Iraq. It is not a front-line state with Iran. Tehran can’t rely on its strategic depth and manpower.
Jerusalem understood the Iranian threat and planned for it. Iran was called a “third circle” threat. Along with Hezbollah, Tehran was seen as the major enemy.
While Israel underestimated Hamas, it overestimated the Islamic Republic and strategized how to defeat the regime. It also carried out the campaign between the wars in Syria to weaken Iran’s efforts to move weapons to Syria and Hezbollah between 2015 and 2024. When Assad fell, its arm in Syria collapsed.
Tehran’s Inability to understand this war is not unique in history. Countries have walked into wars in the past and been surprised by their enemies. For instance, Mexico’s Santa Anna lost in the Texas Revolution and the Mexican-American war in the 19th century. Santa Anna’s arrogance led to defeat.
In addition, Spain entered the Spanish-American War in 1898 assuming it could also withstand the US naval and armed forces. It was surprised when the US defeated the Spanish navy and army in Cuba and the Philippines.
There are other examples. Perhaps the most pertinent to our situation is the historic Persian Empire, which often overestimated its strength. It was defeated by the Greeks several times. The worst came when Alexander of Macedon conquered the Persian Empire and chased its leader to Bactria in Central Asia in the fourth century BCE.
Iran is not the modern Persian Empire, but it has a similar arrogance to Darius III, the Persian leader who lost to Alexander.
The war with Iran now enters a new stage as Tehran’s missile and drone forces are weakened. Iran could hold on and continue to fight, as Israel can’t bring an army to Tehran. It could also ask for a deal. Or Iran’s regime may be weakened from within.
Wars are not usually won solely from the air, though there are exceptions. In 1999, the US and NATO were able to defeat the Serbs in Kosovo largely using air power. However, there were options for a ground invasion if the air campaign failed.
Additionally, the US and a large coalition of countries mostly defeated Saddam’s army in 1991 using air power, followed by a short ground campaign. However, air power didn’t bring the Nazis victory against England during the Battle of Britain. Air power alone is not always enough.
The question for Iran is why it failed to understand the modern battlefield. Didn’t it see that its drones have not won Russia the war in Ukraine. Drones and missiles don’t win wars.
Also, why did Iran think it could deter Israel after threatening the Jewish state for so long? Did it think the US or others would get Israel to call off an attack? Was Iran so used to being the one threatening that it didn’t think anyone else could threaten it? In the history of war, Iran’s blunder appears to be one for the record books.