Hezbollah may resort to assassinating political rivals in Lebanon as its grip on the country weakens, according to a Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center (ITIC)-affiliated expert who spoke with The Jerusalem Post on Sunday.
In recent months, Hezbollah has faced growing restrictions on its power, including new legislation limiting its ability to legally possess weapons and conduct military activity, as well as Beirut’s participation in talks with Jerusalem in Washington. The measures were introduced after Hezbollah dragged Lebanon into another war by launching attacks following the February 28 assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
According to a recent ITIC assessment, Hezbollah is acutely aware of Beirut’s fears of a potential civil war and has repeatedly hinted at or directly threatened such a scenario.
The report noted that Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem warned in August that civil war “could happen,” while recent weeks have seen the group intensify its rhetoric against Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam.
In April, Mahmoud Qamati, deputy chairman of Hezbollah’s political council, declared that once the group concluded its campaign against Israel, a “popular tsunami will sweep away this government, its political sins, and its policies.”
Hezbollah supporters have also circulated online imagery portraying Aoun and Salam as Zionist collaborators.
On May 3, the Hezbollah-affiliated “Hezbollah Field” Telegram channel published images depicting Aoun dressed in religious Jewish garb alongside the caption: “A prime minister who is a loyal servant of Zionism and a hostage to Zionist agendas.”
Warnings against Hezbollah's Unit 121
Last month, Beirut reportedly received warnings from Jerusalem indicating there was an active threat against Aoun’s life, according to Lebanon’s independent Murr Television. Lebanese media outlets affiliated with Beirut said the threats were taken seriously, prompting additional checkpoints near locations associated with American officials.
Despite the threatening rhetoric, Dror Doron, the author of the ITIC assessment and a former senior analyst in the Prime Minister’s Office, told the Post that the first assassination would likely be a symbolic attack carried out by Unit 121 to intimidate Beirut into complying. He predicted that the unit would most likely target a mid- to high-level Christian opposition figure or possibly the foreign minister, with the killings escalating further if needed.
While Hezbollah has never acknowledged the existence of Unit 121, which is believed to be responsible for numerous political assassinations in Lebanon, ITIC noted that a high-profile assassination would fit the group’s long-standing pattern of eliminating figures who challenge its system of control.
The elite unit is believed to have carried out the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri, as well as the killings of members of Lebanon’s internal security forces who investigated the truck bombing that killed Hariri and the country’s former finance minister. Last year, the IDF’s Arabic-language service also revealed five additional assassinations allegedly carried out by the unit.
Asked whether assassinating an elected official could further damage Hezbollah’s already precarious standing in Lebanese society, Doron said Qassem subscribes to a radical IRGC-driven ideology, making him more likely to order an assassination despite the “problematic consequences” it could have for Hezbollah.
Doron: Iran used October 7 to derail Saudi-Israeli normalization
Referencing a letter leaked in recent days, sent by Hamas to assassinated Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on October 7, Doron stressed that Iran and its proxies ultimately carried out the costly 2023 invasion to derail Saudi-Israeli normalization.
“From the point of view of Iran and its proxies, Israeli-Arab peace is a strategic threat, and all means must be used to prevent such a development,” he said, explaining how Qassem would likely justify assassinating despite the potentially disastrous consequences for Hezbollah.
“Hezbollah is more concerned right now with a political and diplomatic move toward peace with Israel than an actual move against its weapons,” he continued. “This is a strategic threat to its core ideology of resistance and the notion of fighting Israel.”