Mali has seen an unprecedented advance by armed groups in recent days, and among the groups involved are Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), considered a jihadist organization, and the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), seen as a group seeking an independent region or state for the Tuareg people.
The groups have attacked cities in northern Mali, and the country has faced massive setbacks as its officials have been killed and Russian mercenaries have fled.
The context here is important. Mali is a large country that spans the Sahel region, connecting sub-Saharan Africa and North Africa. It is the eighth-largest country in Africa. It borders Algeria, Mauritania, Niger, Senegal, Liberia, and Burkina Faso, among other states. As such, what happens in Mali tends to spill over into other areas that span the Sahel. This means that the current advances by various groups could lead to more destabilization in Africa.
Africa matters more and more in the world for a variety of reasons. One is the ongoing wars in other areas, such as Sudan.
In addition, countries such as Israel are increasingly interested in outreach to Somaliland, causing more focus to shift to the Red Sea area.
Many countries are seeking influence. China, Turkey, Russia, and others are investing and, in some cases, seeking a military role. This means Mali is not a lone country fighting a lonely war.
Countries near Mali are key to regional security
Some of the countries bordering or close to Mali are key to regional security. Senegal, for instance, has often been one of the key regional actors in West Africa. Some of these countries also do joint training with the US. Morocco, another important state in North Africa, is a key to the region.
Mali and its neighbors have had coups in recent years. Mali had two coups between 2020 and 2021, Pawel Wojcik points out, who posts under the X/Twitter handle @SaladinAlDronni. He also noted that Burkina Faso and Niger faced coups in 2022 and the summer of 2023, respectively.
He writes that “events in Mali we are witnessing today are a part of an escalating in size and power struggle, that is not all bound to Mali. While it certainly started here, since it originates from AQIM/Ansar al Din [two extremist groups]…It has, since 2015, spread beyond Mali. Both al-Qaeda affiliates and later, Islamic State, expanded from Mali to Burkina Faso and Niger.” He goes on to say that “at the time, both countries still had a significant French and in the case of Niger, French and American presence.”
The coups in these countries led France to end its role in places like Mali. Jihadist, extremist, and ethnic armed groups began to rise. Russia was invited in by the coup leaders to help fight.
The countries sought to form a joint force to coordinate efforts under Burkina Faso General Daouda Traore, who was appointed to head it, with a command base in Niamey, Niger’s capital. Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger also sought to withdraw from ECOWAS, a key economic union of regional states.
'Mali is entering a very dangerous phase'
THE FAILURE of these efforts by these states is now clear. Mali’s defense minister was killed in an attack over the weekend. In northern Mali, Russian mercenaries have withdrawn after failing to stem the tide of JNIM and FLA's advance.
Al-Ain media in the UAE says that “political experts believe that Mali is entering a very dangerous phase with an unprecedented escalation in armed attacks and the involvement of local and international parties in the conflict.”
The report says that the attacks could lead to “large-scale security breakdown across the entire Sahel region, especially after the assassination of the Malian defense minister.” It argued that “the Malian defense minister, one of the most prominent leaders of the ruling military council since 2020, was killed in the attack on his residence on Saturday, carried out by a group linked to al-Qaeda in the Sahel region, according to the French newspaper Le Figaro on Sunday, citing his family and government, and military sources.”
A researcher named Niagale Bagayoko told Al-Ain News, “that what is happening in Mali is not just a security escalation, but a redrawing of the geopolitical map in the Sahel. Bagayoko explained that the killing of the defense minister represents a major shock within the structure of the military regime in Mali, especially since the ruling institution, since 2020, relies on a narrow network of security and military leaders.”
Now, Al-Ain says that “the situation in Mali is becoming increasingly complex, with escalating military operations and the involvement of local and international powers, placing the country at a pivotal stage that could determine the future of stability in the entire Sahel region.”
Further, “clashes broke out again in the northern city during the same day, and new confrontations erupted in Kati, the military city near the capital, Bamako. A Tuareg rebel leader explained to the French television channel TV5 Monde that ‘an agreement has been reached allowing the army and its allies from the African Legion to leave Camp 2, where they had been holed up since Saturday,’ adding that the northern city was now “completely under the control” of the Azawad National Liberation Front.
This is now seen by some analysts quoted at Al-Ain as the worst crisis since 2012 in this region of Africa. The overall concern is that numerous other terrorist and jihadist groups in the area, some with links going back to al-Qaeda and ISIS, will benefit and could surge into other states.