Israel faces a crossroads in Lebanon. In recent days, Israel has lurched from threats to turn parts of southern Lebanon into a Gaza-like landscape of destruction, to also praising Lebanon for expelling the Iranian ambassador. Meanwhile, the IDF has prepared for a long operation in Lebanon.
IDF divisions have been deployed along the border and are carrying out what is characterized as a kind of offensive defense in which they operate in small areas of southern Lebanon. Israel now may look back to history for lessons on what comes next in Lebanon. First, let’s see what the situation is now.
On Sunday, March 22, Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz said that "the Prime Minister and I have ordered the IDF to immediately destroy all bridges over the Litani River that are used for terrorist activity, in order to prevent the passage of Hezbollah terrorists and weapons southward.” He also said that Israel was going to accelerate the destruction of Lebanese houses in the contact villages in order to thwart threats to Israeli settlements - in accordance with the Beit Hanoun and Rafah models in Gaza."
Comparing Lebanon to Gaza means that the policy in Gaza of razing and destroying everything was apparently part of a new doctrine. Israel will raze all the homes along the borders to flatten areas, apparently in order to prevent threats. However, it’s hard not to see this as punitive and collective punishment. Some of these villages have been there for hundreds of years. Some are Christian as well.
Israel’s Defense Minister says that “the IDF is vigorously continuing its ground maneuvers in Lebanon to eliminate Hezbollah terrorists and to reach the anti-tank line and the control points as soon as possible to protect the communities. The IDF will continue to facilitate the evacuation of residents of southern Lebanon north of the Litani River from the war zone for their protection.” This means basically removing all the people from southern Lebanon and then taking control of it.
Meanwhile, Lebanon expelled the Iranian Ambassador, and Israel has praised this development. “Today, the Lebanese government took a very bold decision to expel the Iranian Ambassador from Lebanon…This is a very major watershed step that must be exploited and understood in the context of major changes in the region, which can be reached if the empire of evil from Tehran and its proxies, especially Hezbollah, are wiped out and removed so that peace can be brought to this region,” Israel’s President Herzog said on March 24.
Should Israel invade or trust the Lebanese Gov't?
The challenge for Israel now is to decide if it is going to launch a ground operation to the Litani and expel all the people and flatten many of the villages along the border, or if it will see Lebanon’s expulsion of the Iranian diplomats as a step forward that could lead to more pressure on Hezbollah.
The question is whether Israel has learned from history. Lebanon has been home to threats for years. It has often been a weak state that has invited internal chaos. It has also ostensibly always been at war with Israel since 1948, although the government itself has never been very active in fighting Israel. In 1958, the US sent Marines to Lebanon due to chaos in the country. In 1976, the country fell into civil war, and the Syrian regime intervened in Lebanon as fighting between Christians and Muslims grew.
The Palestinian terrorist groups used Lebanon for attacks on Israel. In 1978, in the wake of a massacre in Israel, Jerusalem decided to act. The IDF noted in an article about the 1978 Litani operation in Lebanon, that in “response to this attack, the Israeli government decided to take military action against the PLO's terrorist infrastructures located in southern Lebanon, in order to push the PLO beyond the Litani River. In a few days, the IDF was able to reach the banks of the Litani River.”
The IDF reached the Litani in a few days. It didn’t need to evacuate all the civilians in southern Lebanon. At the time, many Shi’ites in Lebanon welcomed the IDF. They opposed the PLO. The IDF went back into Lebanon in 1982 to clear the Palestinian terrorist groups from the border again. This time, the invasion happened after the Islamic Revolution in Iran, and some Shi’ites had become radicalized against the US and Israel. The Christian forces also suffered setbacks as their leader, Bashir Gemayel, was killed. As such, Israel faced challenges in Lebanon and didn’t have partners to work with. The war dragged on, and casualties mounted.
After 1982, the IDF established a security zone on the border and worked with a local group called the South Lebanon Army (SLA). Over time, the experience in Lebanon came to be seen as a quagmire. While the Palestinian threat ended, the Hezbollah threat grew. The result was the Israeli withdrawal in 2000. The SLA evaporated, and some even sought to come to Israel. It was an ignominious end.
Years later, Hezbollah attacked Israel in 2006. This came in the wake of the assassination of Lebanese former Prime Minister Rafic Hariri by Hezbollah in 2005 and the withdrawal of Syrian troops from the country. Hezbollah, watching how Hamas had kidnapped Gilad Schalit, sensed Israeli weakness. The result was a month of war.
Now Israel is engaged in what could be seen as the fifth Lebanon War. The first was 1978, then 1982 and 2006, and the fourth was the ground operation in September-October 2024, which resulted in a weakening of Hezbollah and a ceasefire. The question is whether the new offensive will be different than the past.
The talk of destroying Lebanese villages “like Gaza” and demanding the people leave to areas north of the Litani, while blowing up bridges which will make their return harder, appears to sketch out another occupation of southern Lebanon. History has shown this usually doesn’t work. Hezbollah supporters will move north and move into the Sunni and Christian areas of Lebanon. Then they will likely set up camp there and continue attacks. The question is whether Israel can find a way to get the Lebanese government to act.
Israel’s doctrine after October 7 is to seize territory after conflicts. This is essentially the same as the 1967 doctrine, where Israel took over large areas it had conquered after the war with Syria, Egypt, and Jordan. Whether this will work in Lebanon to bring peace or lead to a new quagmire remains to be seen. One thing is clear: the IDF reached the Litani in a few days in 1978 and 1982; these days, it takes months to do the same.