Iraq has not been able to choose a new prime minister in the four months since elections were held last November. Initially, it appeared that former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki would become the new prime minister.
US President Donald Trump, however, opposed Maliki, who is close to Iran and was a disastrous prime minister when Iraq was invaded by ISIS in 2014.
Now, Iraq is in the midst of chaos due to the war in Iran. Iranian-backed militias in Iraq have been running wild, attacking US forces and the autonomous Kurdistan Region in northern Iraq.
Iraqi Shi’ite politicians are maneuvering to choose a new prime minister.
Iraq “remains trapped in a deep political stalemate, with rival factions still unable to agree on a prime minister,” Shafaq News, a Baghdad-based news agency, reported. “The internal dispute over leadership started from within the Shi’ite-led Coordination Framework but has evolved into a broader constitutional and geopolitical crisis, complicated by a regional war between Iran on one side and the United States and Israel on the other.”
“The dispute centers primarily within the Coordination Framework, the Shi’ite alliance that dominates parliamentary politics but remains divided between supporters of former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and those backing other candidates, including the current caretaker premier, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani,” the report said, adding that “amid the stalemate, Iraq’s judiciary stepped unexpectedly into the political debate. Supreme Judicial Council President Judge Faiq Zidan proposed a legal interpretation aimed at restoring what he described as the true constitutional intent behind Article 76.”
This interpretation would fundamentally alter Iraq’s government formation process. “Since 2010, political alliances have typically been formed after elections inside parliament, allowing rival parties to merge into larger coalitions that override the actual electoral results.”
The “optimism surrounding a legal solution collides with strong resistance from factions inside the Coordination Framework, particularly the State of Law coalition led by Nouri al-Maliki,” Shafaq News reported. “For al-Maliki’s allies, the main obstacle is not constitutional interpretation but foreign pressure.”
“Changing the candidate because of American dictates would be humiliating for national legitimacy,” said Aref al-Hammami, a senior member of the Shi’ite coalition. “The US government is neither wise nor respectful of agreements, and giving in to such pressure would open the door to interference even in the details of Iraqi ministries.”
Some voices doubtful a candidate will be chosen
Meanwhile, inside the Coordination Framework itself, some voices appear increasingly pessimistic about reaching a consensus candidate.
“Popular Mobilization Forces [PMF] fighters are currently being targeted by Israeli and American airstrikes,” one official said. “This will certainly delay government formation, and we may remain in a ‘state of emergency government.’”
This creates challenges for the Shi’ite parties. Iraqi parties hope to find a compromise candidate around the time of Eid al-Fitr, the festival ending Ramadan.
“There is now an independent personality outside the Coordination Framework negotiations, regionally acceptable and enjoying the approval of the senior religious authority in Najaf,” a person familiar with the matter told Shafaq News. “This candidate may be announced in the coming days as a consensus option.”
Badr Organization leader Hadi Al-Amiri “has begun mediation efforts to ease divisions within Iraq’s Shi’ite Coordination Framework as the alliance struggles to agree on a nominee for the next prime minister, a political source told Shafaq News on Wednesday.”
Badr is a pro-Iranian group with roots going back to the 1980s in Iraq, when it worked alongside Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Today, it is in parliament and also has brigades in the PMF.
The PMF is composed of Iranian-backed militias, which have been attacking US forces. Badr is the only major group within the PMF that has not been sanctioned by the US as a terrorist group. Other groups, such as Kataib Hezbollah, have been sanctioned.
“According to the source, Al-Amiri plans to gather bloc leaders at a Ramadan iftar or suhoor meeting in the coming days to address the stalemate and narrow differences over the premiership,” Shafaq News reported. “The alliance remains split into three camps: one supporting State of Law Coalition leader Nouri Al-Maliki, joined by Mohsen Al-Mandalawi of the Al-Asas (Foundation) Coalition and Hussein Moanes; another opposing Al-Maliki’s bid, including Ammar Al-Hakim, head of the Al-Hikma (Wisdom) Movement, and Asaib Ahl Al-Haq chief Qais Al-Khazali; and a third taking a cautious position, comprising Al-Amiri, Islamic Supreme Council leader Hammam Hamoudi, and caretaker Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani.”
Asaib Ahl al-Haq has been sanctioned by the US as a terrorist group. This illustrates how Iranian-backed groups continue to exert significant influence in Iraq, including the election of the prime minister.