Hamas is trying to slow-play the Gaza ceasefire deal so that it can eke out as much wiggle room as possible and remain in charge of the Gaza Strip. “We accept the deployment of UN forces as a separation force, tasked with monitoring the borders and ensuring compliance with the ceasefire in Gaza,” Hamas official Khalil Al-Hayya said recently.
The goal of Hamas now is to perpetuate a Catch-22 in the Strip, whereby it says it will only disarm if the IDF withdraws, knowing full well that the IDF won’t withdraw until the terror group disarms. As such, Hamas creates a situation in which it always has an excuse to do nothing. It assumes time is on its side. Hamas knows that Israel doesn’t want to return to fighting.
There is one hostage that must be returned. There is no major pressure in Israel or any incentive to go back to war.
Hamas also knows that Israeli officials don’t want the Palestinian Authority to run Gaza. As such, Hamas knows that the power vacuum in the Strip will also lead to de facto Hamas control.
For almost two decades, Hamas has relied on the assumption that Israeli officials prefer to have Hamas in Gaza in place of the PA, in order to divide the Strip from the West Bank. It thus benefits from this situation. Disarmament is also an amorphous term. Hamas assumes it can quietly find a way out of this obligation.
What is the regional media saying? Arab News noted last week that “Hamas said Saturday it was ready to hand over its weapons in the Gaza Strip to a Palestinian authority governing the territory on the condition that the Israeli army’s occupation ends.”
As noted above, Hayya said, “Our weapons are linked to the existence of the occupation and the aggression… If the occupation ends, these weapons will be placed under the authority of the state.”
Hamas also said: “We accept the deployment of UN forces as a separation force, tasked with monitoring the borders and ensuring compliance with the ceasefire in Gaza.”
What are the regional media saying?
Another Hamas official Bassem Naim was quoted by Al Ain media as saying that Hamas was open to “freezing or storing” its weapons. This also came in a comment to the Associated Press. Al Ain noted that this presents a “possible formula for resolving one of the most contentious issues in the US-brokered deal.”
The report noted that “since the ceasefire took effect in October, Hamas and Israel have carried out a series of prisoner exchanges, releasing hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. With the remains of only one hostage still held in Gaza – an Israeli policeman killed in an attack on October 7 – both sides are preparing to enter the second phase.
The new phase aims to chart the future of war-torn Gaza and is more difficult, as it addresses issues such as the deployment of an international security force, the formation of a Palestinian technocratic committee in the Strip, the withdrawal of Israeli forces, and the disarmament of Hamas,” Al Ain reported.
Furthermore, “Israel’s demand that Hamas lay down its arms is expected to be extremely difficult, with Israeli officials saying this is a key demand that could hinder progress in other areas.”
Naim said that Hamas retains “its right to resist,” but added that “the movement is prepared to lay down its arms as part of a process aimed at establishing a Palestinian state,” the report noted.
“Naim offered few details on how this would be achieved, but suggested a long-term truce of five or 10 years to conduct the discussions. Regarding the weapons, he continued, ‘We can talk about freezing them, storing them, or throwing them away, with Palestinian guarantees that they will not be used at all during the current ceasefire or truce.’”
Now the ceasefire plan is facing a hurdle to get to phase two. While most countries want progress, most of them aren’t willing to do much, such as commit forces to Gaza.
Most countries won’t define or press for disarmament. Israel is committed to staying in Gaza, and Israeli leaders believe this will keep Hamas in check. Israel also retains its freedom of operations in Gaza.
“One of the most urgent issues is the deployment of the international force. Several countries – including Indonesia – have expressed their willingness to contribute, but its composition and mandate remain unclear,” the Al Ain report added.
Meanwhile, the Hamas official said, “We welcome a UN force to monitor violations and prevent escalation, but we do not accept that it should have any powers inside the Gaza Strip.”
Al Ain is still hopeful. “In a sign of progress, Naim revealed that Hamas and the Palestinian Authority have agreed on the head of the new technocratic committee, a Palestinian minister from Gaza who lives in the West Bank, believed to be Health Minister Majid Abu Ramadan.”