A US proposal for an international force continues to await approval at the UN Security Council. The longer the wait continues, the greater the uncertainty in Gaza about what may come next.
Some of these concerns are growing among friendly countries in the region who would like to see things move forward. It has been a month since the ceasefire began on October 13, and more than a month since the agreement in Sinai to end the war.
The US has submitted the proposal to the UN, and the question now is whether a deal can be reached. It looks like this will require Russian support, as Moscow is a member of the UN Security Council and has its own plan for resolution.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin over the weekend as a measure of diplomacy.
What are regional players saying about the current US proposal?
An article at Al-Ain media in the UAE noted that “the draft American proposal submitted to the Security Council includes extensive details about the tasks of the International Stabilization Force that Washington wants to form to work in Gaza."
The report added, "with this force working in cooperation with elements of the Palestinian police, within the framework of multi-stage security arrangements.”
The news article says, "The question is not whether the [Hamas] movement will be disarmed, but who will carry out this task." It was also noted that “according to diplomatic sources who spoke to Al-Ain News, the latest draft of the resolution underwent three fundamental amendments, which succeeded in rallying the support of a number of Arab and Islamic countries, after intensive consultations led by Washington and its partners.”
It’s clear that Israel opposes any Palestinian state. As stated by Defense Minister Israel Katz on November 16, other members of the current government have slammed the Palestinians.
“The indication is that implementing the Palestinian reform program and making progress in the redevelopment of Gaza could pave the way towards a credible path to Palestinian self-determination and statehood,” Al-Ain added. Meanwhile, the belief is that the new transitional phase in Gaza could last up to two years.
The draft resolution at the UN includes 11 complete articles, addressing the structure of the Peace Council, the powers of the international stabilization forces, transitional governance arrangements, and the required Palestinian reform program.
The Resolution is an addition to the schedule of periodic reports that the Peace Council submits to the Security Council every six months. The American plan praises the role played by the State of Qatar, the Arab Republic of Egypt, and the Republic of Turkey in facilitating the ceasefire in Gaza.
According to Al-Ain, the draft resolution also has other aspects, including a Board of Peace, that would be involved in “establishing a transitional governing administration under the supervision of a non-political, technocratic Palestinian committee."
In addition, it involves "launching reconstruction programs and upgrading infrastructure and vital services; coordinating humanitarian aid and preventing its diversion for any military purposes and overseeing the international stabilization force that will lead the disarmament process and prevent the rebuilding of the military infrastructure in Gaza. The resolution also authorizes member states to provide troops, equipment, and funding, in addition to establishing an international fund through the World Bank to finance reconstruction.”
Meanwhile, another report at Al-Arabiya has portrayed the current division of Gaza into an IDF-controlled Yellow Line area, and a second area controlled by the Palestinians, as a kind of “Berlin Wall.”
The report claims that “leaks” about the next steps have revived international and Egyptian concerns that this line could be the starting point for dividing the Strip into two separate entities, thus jeopardizing the comprehensive ceasefire agreement signed in Sharm el-Sheikh.”
What did the Egyptian sources say? “Egyptian military and diplomatic warnings hinted at a premeditated Israeli intention to solidify this temporary military situation and transform the Yellow line into the 'Berlin Wall' of the 21st century, in this context."
In addition, Major General Osama Mahmoud, a lecturer at the [Egyptian] Command and Staff College, explained that Israel is clearly seeking to obstruct the second phase of the Trump peace agreement that was signed in Sharm El-Sheikh on October 13th.”
The report adds that the Yellow Line is currently not defined, “meaning that no fixed ground markers or clear geographical coordinates were placed.” This is not completely accurate, since the IDF has put up some markers in Gaza.
However, the situation reflects positions or concerns in Egypt and elsewhere. The source said that there were "repeated Israeli violations of the agreement, the inability to hand over the remains of the bodies, in addition to the crisis of the stranded Hamas fighters, are merely flimsy pretexts aimed primarily at prolonging the stay of the Israeli forces in the sector, and consolidating their military position at this ambiguous line.”
In essence, there is concern about the “de facto partition” of Gaza. Al-Arabiya went on to note that “for his part, former Egyptian ambassador to Israel, Atef Salem, warned of the Yellow Line."
In addition, "It indicates that there are numerous signs pointing to the de facto division of Gaza into two areas: one under Israeli control and the other controlled by Hamas."
In statements to Saudi-owned outlets Al-Arabiya and Al-Hadath, Salem highlighted that, according to US Vice President Vance and Jared Kushner, the reconstruction process "will be limited to the area under Israeli control, even if the second phase of the agreement is not implemented."
He added that "the reconstruction plan lacks any clear timelines or implementation mechanisms, and that the process is consistently linked to the disarmament of Hamas.”
European officials are also said to be concerned, as they would prefer to see the Palestinian Authority play a role. “They do not expect the Trump plan to progress beyond a ceasefire,” the report at Al-Arabiya says, quoting Reuters. “They also warned last week that, in the absence of a major effort by the United States to break the deadlock, the Yellow Line appears likely to become the de facto border dividing Gaza indefinitely.”