US Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani on Tuesday. He urged him to disarm Iranian-backed militias in Iraq.
This refers to a dozen armed groups that have carried out attacks on US forces in Iraq, as well as targeting Israel, Jordan, and other countries.
The challenge in Iraq is that these militias are also affiliated with the government-backed Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), which gives them an official cover. As such, they operate as both official paramilitary groups and as the arm of Iran in Iraq.
Disarming the militias faces challenges. In addition, the issue of disarmament is already bolstered by the increasing sanctions the US has placed on the militias.
To understand this context, it is worth reviewing several recent developments in Iraq.
The militias have carried out assassinations for years, as well as rocket and drone attacks targeting US forces and the autonomous Kurdistan Region of northern Iraq. They have also been involved in fighting in Syria and have links to Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio “highlighted the urgency in disarming Iran-backed militias that undermine Iraq’s sovereignty, threaten the lives and businesses of Americans and Iraqis, and pilfer Iraqi resources for Iran,” the State Department said.
The US demand to disarm the militias has received coverage in regional media, such as Al Ain News, a UAE-based news site.
Shafaq News, a Baghdad-based news agency, reported: “Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani urged the United States to avoid unilateral decisions in Iraq, insisting that all actions impacting bilateral ties must go through formal diplomatic channels.”
The Shi’ite Coordination Framework, an Iranian-backed umbrella of Shi’ite factions in Iraq, met on Wednesday to respond to Rubio’s demands.
Iranian officials met with Iraqi National Security Adviser Qasem al-Araji this week as the countries discuss closer security agreements. In addition, Brig.-Gen. Esmail Qaani, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force, traveled to Iraq this week, Shafaq News reported.
The PMF is an outgrowth of a Fatwa in 2014 by Iraqi cleric Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani that called on Iraqis to mobilize against ISIS.
Eventually, a dozen or more militias grew out of this, many of them with links to Iran’s IRGC. Some of them, such as Kataib Hezbollah and Badr, have roots in Iraq going back decades. They recruited up to 100,000 men.
Iran’s influence in Iraq
Despite more than a decade of relative nonintervention in the Iraqi political landscape, Rubio’s recent comments indicate the Trump administration’s lack of patience with Iran.
President Donald Trump’s conflict with Iran dates back to his first term, when he pulled out of the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), more commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal.
He also ordered a drone strike against Qasem Soleimani, the Quds Force commander who was in Baghdad for meetings with Kataib Hezbollah leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. Both men were killed in the January 2020 attack.
The US heavily supported Israel during the “Twelve Day War,” defending Israel with missile interceptors and intelligence. In June, US forces bombed three Iranian nuclear sites, escalating tensions between the two countries to new levels.
Rubio’s statement about the Iran-backed militias is the culmination of years of deteriorating relations between the US and Iran. It could prove to be a test for Iraq, which has found itself caught between the two powers for years.
Some factions in Iraq prefer close ties to Iran, such as the Shi’ite parties and militias. Others, such as the leading party in the Kurdistan Region, the KDP, and many Sunni groups, likely prefer closer ties to the US.
Since the fall of Saddam Hussein, Iran has exerted a heavy influence on Iraq’s government through its backing of the PMF, among other groups in the country.
At the same time, the US has maintained military bases in Iraq. US forces mostly left Iraq in 2011, only to return to assist the country in the fight against ISIS in 2014.
What’s different about Iraqi militias?
Disarming Iraqi militias may be different than calls to disarm Hamas and Hezbollah. Although all three groups are backed by Iran, they have different roles in their respective areas.
While Hamas is ingrained in the bureaucracy of Gaza, controlling government, policing, and education, the majority of Iraqi militias are state-backed as official paramilitaries.
While they receive some state funding, however, there are calls to integrate them more with a new PMF law. As such, they have state paramilitary functions, as well as being able to claim they act outside government control when they commit abuses.
There are dozens of Iranian backed militias in Iraq, and within the PMF, most sources say there are 60-70 armed groups. Several of these groups, such as Badr, control multiple brigades, while others are much smaller.
Key groups in the PMF include Badr, which was founded in 1982 as a “military wing” of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iran. It was created and led by Iran.
Badr is responsible for 14 brigades in the PMF and claims to have 10,000-50,000 members. While designated as a terrorist organization by the UAE, it has avoided US sanctions by not attacking US military bases, forces, or infrastructure.
Badr is heavily embedded in the Iraqi government, which also makes it harder for the US to impose sanctions on it as a terrorist group.
Asaib Ahl al-haq is another key group in the PMF. Founded in 2006 against the Islamic State of Iraq, it constitutes three brigades of the PMF. They are trained by the IRGC and Hezbollah and assassinate Iraqi political opponents.
Asaib Ahl al-Haq was sanctioned by the US in 2020, and its leaders were designated as Specially Designated Global Terrorists (SDGTs) and Specially Designated Nationals (SDNs) due to their attacks on US troops.
Kata’ib Hezbollah – not to be confused with Hezbollah in Lebanon – was founded in 2003 and makes up three brigades of the PMF. Funded, trained, and equipped directly by the IRGC, it is the biggest militia in Iraq.
In 2009, the US designated it as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) and a SDGT. A lot of the higher-ups of the group were individually sanctioned as SDNs, and the US killed its leader in 2020.
The majority of factions within the PMF have not been sanctioned or designated as FTOs, SDGTs, or SDNs by the US, as they avoid attacking US forces.
Implication for Iraq
With heavy pressure from two opposing forces, it remains to be seen what Iraq’s response to Rubio’s call for disarmament will be. Should Iraq attempt to do so, it would be one more loss on a long list for Iran, which has seen its regional proxies crumble since the start of the Israel-Hamas War.
If Iraq chooses to ignore the US’s reproach, it could have negative repercussions for the country.
The White House recently appointed Mark Savaya as its new envoy to Iraq. He will be arriving in his position just as Iraq seeks to wrestle with Rubio’s request.