For decades, the Turkish army has operated in northern Iraq. It has established bases and posts in the mountainous Kurdish region. This is the autonomous region of Kurdistan in northern Iraq which has its own government, called the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG).
The KRG is a wealthy and relatively stable region of Iraq. It runs two airports and has its own army, called the Peshmerga. The decision by the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) to lay down its arms and apparently disband has reverberated across the Kurdistan Region of northern Iraq. This is because people in the Kurdistan Region now hope the Turkish soldiers will go home and the war will end.
The KRG has always suffered under the uncertainty that the Turkish army presence has brought. The Turkish army is fighting the PKK, which was founded among Kurds in Turkey, but the conflict with Turkey has expanded far beyond Turkey’s borders over the decades. In addition, the PKK has inspired Kurdish groups in Iran, Iraq, and Syria. As such, it is not just a Kurdish movement in Turkey.
For the KRG the presence of the PKK and the Turkish army, along with the decision by Ankara to expand the war into northern Iraq has always posed a challenge. The KRG has two large Kurdish political parties that dominate politics. These are the KDP and PUK.
The KDP is more center-right leaning. The PUK is more center-left. The KDP dominates Erbil and Dohuk, two large cities in the KRG. Dohuk is near the Turkish border.
The PUK dominates Sulimaniyah near the Iranian border. The PUK has tended to have warmer ties with the PKK, while the KDP generally has colder views of the PKK. Some of this is due to a Kurdish civil war in the 1990s that took the lives of Kurds fighting on both sides. As such, many KDP members view the PKK as an adversary, and some accuse it of kidnapping children for its ranks, or bringing disaster on the Kurdish people by fighting Turkey.
The complex internal politics of the KRG mean that the KDP has tended toward closer ties with Turkey’s ruling AKP party. Turkey has long pressured Iraq and the KRG to crack down on the PKK. When Iraq and the KRG refused, Turkey expanded its war. It sent drones to attack members of the PKK and built more bases over the last decade. It also attacked Sinjar, home of the Yazidis, as well as a camp near Erbil called Makhmour, claiming the PKK was active in both places.
Quick changes in northern Iraq
Things are moving fast in northern Iraq. Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke on Saturday about the peace process between Ankara and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Meanwhile, the KDP, also on Saturday, said it was giving Baghdad a “final opportunity” regarding a dispute over energy deals and salaries.
In addition, Kurdistan Region President Nechirvan Barzani met on Friday with members of the Turkish Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party). The DEM party is a left-leaning party in Turkey that appeals to many Kurdish voters. It is often accused by Ankara of being sympathetic to the PKK. Peace talks matter for the DEM because they could mean that Ankara stops arresting its members, accusing them of “terrorism.”
Over the weekend, members of the PKK symbolically handed over their weapons and burned them, showing that they were laying down their weapons.
At the same time, Masoud Barzani indicated willingness to meet the jailed leader of the PKK, Abdullah Ocalan. Ocalan has called on the PKK to drop its weapons. Parents of the PKK members who have put down their weapons have embraced the peace process, Rudaw media in Erbil said. This is an emotional time, the same media noted. The PUK has also embraced the peace process, calling it a “historic step.”
The optimism in northern Iraq’s Kurdistan region is clear. The KRG hopes this could open up a new era.
However, there are signs of trouble on the horizon. In Syria, the Damascus government is chafing against the US-backed SDF. It doesn’t want them to have autonomy. In essence, Syria is saying it doesn’t want the Kurdish region of eastern Syria to have the autonomy that the KRG has experienced since the 1990s. This could cause trouble for the KRG if there is conflict in eastern Syria.
There are also tensions in Altun Kapri on the border of the Kirkuk region, where Turkmen are angry with the KRG over a political appointment. Turkey cares deeply about the Turkmen of northern Iraq, who are concentrated in Kirkuk and Tal Afar. In addition, the energy dispute with Baghdad has not been bridged. Pro-Iranian militias have also been using drones to attack the KRG.
There are also questions about the US role in the KRG. While some financial support may be coming for the Peshmerga and for eastern Syria, the US role in Syria and Iraq is unclear.
The United States has a new consulate in Erbil. This is important. However, there are questions about what may happen next with the Kurdish Peshmerga.
The Peshmerga have been divided on political lines between the PUK and the KDP in the past. The PUK is usually said to control the Peshmerga’s Unit 70 while the KDP controls Unit 80 of the group. These political-military groupings were supposed to be dismantled over the last decade. The war on ISIS postponed the reforms. Baghdad’s attack on the KRG in 2017 after an independence referendum also led to a setback.
Now there is talk that the promised reform will happen and the Peshmerga will be de-politicized. As the KRG looks to a new area potentially free from the PKK-Turkey war, there is much to be hopeful about.