An Iraqi source told the UAE’s Al-Ain news that Iran is withdrawing military advisers from Baghdad. The report characterized this as “significant.”
This report arrived in the context of the US airstrikes on Iran and a week of Israeli strikes on the Islamic Republic.
Tehran backs several pro-Iranian militias in Iraq. These militias are part of the Popular Mobilization Forces. They have increased their threats to attack US forces and partners in the region in the last week.
The militias include Kata’ib Hezbollah, a group that kidnapped Princeton researcher Elizabeth Tsurkov in 2023, as well as Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba and Asaib Ahl al-Haq. These groups are all sanctioned by the US as terrorist groups.
Iran has had advisers in Iraq in the past, especially during the war against ISIS, when it assisted Iraq. The militias played a key role in fighting ISIS, and they grew in number in 2014 and 2015 due to a fatwa (an Islamic law ruling) issued by Iraqi cleric Ali al-Sistani.
Unclear how many IRGC members in Iraq
It is unclear how many advisers from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Iran has in Iraq. Tehran also had IRGC advisers in Syria backing president Bashar al-Assad’s regime.
At the peak, there may have been several thousand IRGC members in Syria. They left when the Assad regime fell. The IRGC has backed groups like Kata’ib Hezbollah in Iraq, which coordinates closely with Iran.
Kata’ib Hezbollah has launched drones targeting Israel and also killed Americans in Jordan with a drone in 2024.
Iranian-backed militias have also attacked the Kurdistan Regional Government in the past. They have also attacked energy and gas fields in the Kurdistan Region.
An Iraqi source told Al-Ain News that “Iran is withdrawing its military advisers from Baghdad.”
The report states that this happened “today,” apparently meaning Sunday.
“To date, Iran has neither confirmed nor denied this information, which comes after a US strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, which Tehran condemned as a ‘crossing of a red line.’”
What did the Iraqi sources say?
“Informed Iraqi security and political sources revealed to Al-Ain... that most of these advisers are from the [Islamic] Revolutionary Guard Corps, indicating Tehran’s intention to reduce its direct presence in Iraq in anticipation of a possible escalation in the confrontation with the United States following the US strike on Iranian nuclear facilities early Sunday morning.”
The report said that the Iranians have left several locations in Baghdad. One location is the Jadriyah neighborhood.
This neighborhood is on a bend of the Tigris River, just as the river snakes through Baghdad. It is not far from the Babylon Rotana and a key bridge that leads to the Green Zone.
As such, Jadriyah is near key government institutions and foreign embassies. It is also near several nice hotels and restaurants, as well as a university.
The report said that this neighborhood has “long been considered a safe haven for Iranian advisers from the [Islamic] Revolutionary Guard Corps.”
It also stated that Iranians left the Karada district, located to the west of Jadriyah. Karada is located in the same bend of the river as Jadriyah, and it is also connected to the Green Zone by a bridge.
This is an upper-class area. The report said that the Iranians had “several logistical support centers for Iranian-backed armed factions located under the guise of cultural centers.”
Additionally, the sources that Al-Ain quoted stated that Iranian advisers had left the Saydiya neighborhood, located across the Tigris River to the west of Jadriyah.
This neighborhood also features a university and several prominent mosques. A fourth neighborhood, known as Salhiah, is located just north of the Green Zone.
Al-Ain said that these two neighborhoods “house joint security and military coordination offices with some Iraqi factions.” Both areas “also witnessed evacuations this morning.”
According to a religious map of Baghdad, Jadriyah today consists of a majority of Shi’ites, as does Karada, although there is a significant Christian minority in Karada.
Saydiya is considered a mixed neighborhood, although it has trended to becoming more Shi’ite in the last decades.
Salhiah also appears to be a mixed neighborhood that became more Shi’ite.
The report said that these sites “were used for supervision and coordination operations between the [IRGC] and a group of Iraqi factions.”
Sources told Al-Ain that “the withdrawal may be preemptive and tactical to minimize potential losses should the US-Iranian conflict escalate into mutual attacks involving Tehran’s proxies in the region.”
Further, the withdrawal was supposed to be coordinated with the pro-Iranian militias. The report added that members of the Popular Mobilization Forces will now fill the vacuum left by the Iranians.
As with any source or sources and details like this, it is essential to ask what the agenda is.
Why would Baghdad reveal this?
It could be that Baghdad is leaking this information to make it seem as though Iran is not a threat to the US from Iraq.
Moreover, it could also serve as a cover for increased tensions. It is not clear how significant the IRGC presence was to begin with, so this could be messaging designed to claim that Iran is drawing down forces when it did not have many to begin with.
Then again, this could be a case of pure disinformation. There are several reasons why reports like this may appear, and it is essential to examine these reasons and question the reliability of this report.
If it is, it is also important to consider the purpose of what is being reported.