Likud rose to 28 Knesset seats, matching its support on the eve of the October 7, 2023, war, while the coalition bloc dipped to 52 seats, according to a new Maariv poll published Friday.
The survey, conducted by Lazar Research under Dr. Menachem Lazar with Panel4All on December 10–11, found the Religious Zionist Party falling below the electoral threshold, reducing the coalition tally by one seat.
Winners, losers, and the threshold
After plunging to 16 seats in the weeks following October 7, Likud has steadily climbed back. The shift accelerated after Operation Rising Lion in June, the poll indicated, and in recent months Likud has led the field, overtaking former prime minister Naftali Bennett’s prospective “Bennett 2026” party.
Religious Zionist Party, led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, slid under the threshold with 2.8% support, as public divisions over the IDF draft framework and the state budget grew.
Party-by-party snapshot
Within the coalition, Shas gained one seat to nine, while Otzma Yehudit and United Torah Judaism held steady at eight and seven, respectively.
In the change bloc, Yisrael Beytenu under Avigdor Liberman and the Democrats under Yair Golan each gained two seats. Bennett 2026 fell by two to 20, and Yesh Atid under Yair Lapid dropped one to eight. Blue and White at 2.9%, The Reservists at 2.8%, and Balad at 2% did not clear the threshold.
Bloc math and Netanyahu question
This week’s map puts the coalition at 52 seats, down from 53 in the previous poll, and the opposition plus Bennett–Eisenkot alignment at 58, up from 57.
Opposition voters were asked how they would react if their chosen party said it would not rule out joining a Netanyahu-led government after the election. Twenty-four percent said they would back the party regardless. A majority, 52%, said they would switch their vote, 11% would not vote, and 13% were undecided. Support for sticking with a party even if it keeps the option open was highest among Yisrael Beytenu voters at 31% and Bennett supporters at 29%, while resistance was strongest among The Democrats voters at 61% and Eisenkot voters at 59%.
Public mood: weather readiness and cautious optimism
Fifty-six percent of respondents believe Israel is prepared to handle the current bout of severe weather, 35% say the state is not doing everything it can, and 9% do not know.
The poll also recorded a modest rise in optimism about Israel’s future, with 57% optimistic versus 34% pessimistic and 9% undecided, compared with 51% optimistic and 38% pessimistic in November.
The survey was conducted December 10–11 among 500 respondents, representing Israel’s adult population, Jewish and Arab, aged 18 and older. The maximum sampling error is 4.4%.