When US President Donald Trump came into office, he arrived with a success already under his belt. The Gaza ceasefire had been agreed in the days before his inauguration, meaning that he could come into office without having to deal with trying to sort out the war in Gaza.
The Biden administration had been consumed by dealing with wars abroad. First, it was the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and then the Hamas attack on Israel in 2023. Trump wanted to end these conflicts.
Trump’s natural inclination is toward peace and ending endless wars. He sees war as a sunk cost and something that should be avoided. He also stands with a long American tradition of trying to avoid foreign wars and entanglements.
That American tradition changed during the Cold War and with the US role as a global hegemon at the end of the Cold War; however, Trump has sought to return to a different era of US policy.
As such, Trump’s doctrine has sought an end to conflicts. The first six months of his second administration sought to end the war in Ukraine and Gaza, as well as get a new Iran deal. He also worked toward several important ceasefires. One ceasefire deal was made between India and Pakistan.
He has backed an end to the fighting between Thailand and Cambodia. After the US carried out airstrikes against Iran, Trump also brokered a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. This ended 12 days of fighting. He also initiated and terminated airstrikes against the Houthis.
Trump doctrine frustrations
However, the 60-day ceasefire that the White House was working toward between Israel and Gaza did not come to fruition in Gaza. This has left the Trump doctrine with some frustrations. There is no new Iran deal, there is no deal in Ukraine, and the war in Gaza has continued.
While the US has backed the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation's initiative to deliver aid to Gaza, this organization can only deliver a limited amount of aid. The GHF model delivers millions of meals a day via boxes that are transported by trucks to several distribution points. It has delivered around 92 million meals to date, the organization said on July 25.
The GHF concept works up to a point in Gaza. However, the pressure has built on Israel to resolve the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. With some 2 million people concentrated in around 30 percent of Gaza that is still controlled by Hamas, it is clear that Hamas will continue to control the lives of most Gazans.
No alternative government has been proposed for the Gaza Strip. There is no clear post-war plan. GHF’s model, providing aid via a few sites and having people walk miles to get it and carry boxes, is not a long-term solution to feeding Gaza.
Trump likely knows this. He wanted a ceasefire. However, the process that helped lead to the January ceasefire has not been effective this time. This is because Hamas wants an end to the war, and Israel prefers short ceasefire deals and a return to fighting. Trump would prefer to end this war.
This leaves the Trump doctrine with question marks about what comes next. Even though the US has sought to pivot its focus to Asia rather than the Middle East, the Middle East still appears to be a primary focus. Trump’s doctrine will need to examine what comes next as long as that remains the case.