Despite Israel’s unprecedented success in intercepting over 99% of drones sent during the Israel-Iran war, the country must shift its outlook in order to face the next threat in warfare: suicide drones.
Over 1,000 drones were intercepted successfully during Israel’s war with Iran, but this incredible success may also be dangerous, because it may make Israel think it is prepared for anything.
The 12-day war with Iran in June 2025 will be remembered for the IDF's military achievements, but also for how dangerous the use of drones is becoming in warfare.
In reality, the technological landscape is changing quickly. If Ukraine is set to produce 5 million suicide drones a year, meaning 350,000 per month, then Israel must recalibrate its understanding of the suicide drones as they become a part of everyday warfare.
Israel will lose its possibility of 100% defense rates, not even close. Our mindset must shift.
How has drone warfare evolved?
In 2006, during the Second Lebanon War, Israel dealt with three drones over 33 days of fighting. In 2025, over 1,000 were sent in just 12 days of fighting. By 2027? There may be tens of thousands, sometimes every day.
Capabilities will also escalate, as newer technologies will allow for autonomous swarms based on AI, lower altitude flights, smart sensors, more precise weapons, and a better ability to hit targets by the drone’s suicide or weapon release.
Today’s drones are no longer “toys with cameras.” They are an integral part of modern battlefields, flexible, stealthy, and sometimes almost unstoppable.
So what can be done?
The answer lies not just in technology, but in a shift in perception: awareness of the threat and preparedness for it.
As part of civil defense, schools, workplaces, residential buildings, and every military unit must recognize the incoming threat and prepare in every way possible through the use of physical protection sheets, camouflage, and defense protocols at sensitive sites and military facilities.
Iron Dome isn’t enough
Israel's Iron Dome and multi-layered defense systems were built to defend against missiles and aircraft, not for low-flying drones that skim the ground. Israel needs a broad array of neutralization tools already available today, with creative thinking for civilian protection in coordination with security forces.
Israel would also need sensor arrays, radars, visual sensors, and acoustic detection on a local and national scale, real-time updates, and be linked to a dedicated command-and-control (C2) system accessible via smartphones, while preserving appropriate classification and security, similar to the alerts for Iranian missiles.
The information would then be shared with all relevant actors, including civilian response teams and strategic sites.
We must also prevent these tools from ever reaching their targets. This could include offensive operations inside enemy territory, non-kinetic tools like electronic warfare to disable or "capture" drones, including forcing them to land at predetermined sites, cyber operations, disrupting supply chains, and more.
And what about the law?
While the technological gap between Western states and our adversaries is narrowing, the legal gap remains substantial. Western countries like Israel and the US adhere to international humanitarian law, upholding principles of distinction and proportionality, whereas our enemies openly ignore them and deliberately target civilians with drones and missiles.
For example, Iran targeted ballistic missiles at city centers to deliberately hit civilians, a war crime that the UN conveniently ignores.
One of Israel’s greatest advantages is its human capital. The enemy is not resting. Threats are growing more sophisticated. In a few years, thousands of autonomous systems could emerge, even from Syria. From the West Bank, dozens of drones could be launched in combat scenarios similar to the Ukraine-Russia war.
Israel demonstrated exceptional capabilities in the recent war with Iran, but their extraordinary success, an unprecedented 99% interception rate, could blind us and leave us underprepared for the next wave of threats.
Five million drones, many of them suicide drones, per year is not science fiction; it’s today’s challenge, and Israel must prepare for it seriously and urgently.
The writer is a retired IAF colonel, strategic advisor to Israel’s Ministry of Defense and defense startups, and a law PhD candidate at Reichman University specializing in lethal autonomous weapons and human involvement in targeting decisions.