A study in Science Advances delivered the most detailed climate timeline for the Maya Terminal Classic, recording 44 years of severe drought between 871 and 1021 CE, including a 13-year dry spell beginning in 929 CE, reported Science Daily.
Led by Daniel H. James of the University of Cambridge Department of Earth Sciences, an international team reconstructed rainfall almost season by season by measuring oxygen-isotope fingerprints preserved in a stalagmite from Grutas Tzabnah, a cave near Tecoh on the Yucatán Peninsula. Because the stalagmite grew roughly one millimetre per year, the researchers isolated individual wet and dry seasons for the first time.
The chemical record revealed eight droughts during the rainy season, each lasting at least three consecutive years. “Thirteen years of drought in the wet season could mean 13 consecutive failed harvests—we know from the modern world how devastating that can be,” said James. Overall, roughly half of the 150-year record showed rainfall well below normal.
Archaeological timelines aligned closely with these climatic shocks. During the longest drought, dated inscriptions on stone monuments at northern centres such as Chichén Itzá stopped, and large-scale construction halted. The pattern repeated across the Yucatán. “This does not necessarily mean that the Maya abandoned Chichén Itzá during the severe drought periods,” James stressed, “but it is likely that they had more pressing concerns than the construction of landmarks, such as whether the crops they relied on would succeed or not”.
The stalagmite provided a precise chronological bridge between climate and history, something earlier lake-sediment studies lacked. “Lake sediment is great when you want to look at the big picture, but stalagmites allow us to access the fine-grained detail that we’ve been missing,” James explained.
“Multiple theories have emerged about the cause of the collapse—changes in trade routes, wars, or severe droughts—based on the archaeological evidence the Maya left behind,” James explained. The new stalagmite record strengthened the argument that climate instability acted as a decisive stressor: maize yields during multiyear droughts could drop to as little as ten percent of normal production, threatening densely populated urban centres dependent on intensive agriculture.
Drought was not the only factor. Futura Sciences reported that internal conflict, overpopulation, deforestation, and political breakdown also played roles. Even sophisticated Maya water-management networks—reservoirs, canals, and underground cisterns—could not offset more than a decade of missing summer rains. The regional capital Uxmal collapsed a few years after the 13-year drought, whereas Chichén Itzá showed greater resilience, likely because of trade links that allowed it to import food from central Mexico.
“Even if it does not seem so at first glance, this is as much a story of resilience as it is a story of decline,” said James. He argued that local water-storage techniques mitigated the worst effects and offered lessons for today’s climate challenges.
The Cambridge-led group planned to expand its cave network across the peninsula to refine the drought timeline site by site and to test how differing political and economic strategies shaped each city’s fate. For now, the stalagmite from Grutas Tzabnah provided the clearest evidence yet that a cluster of long, severe droughts exerted relentless pressure on Maya society during its final centuries of splendor.
Written with the help of a news-analysis system.