Asteroid 2024 YR4, once considered a potential threat to Earth, now has a slightly increased chance of striking the Moon on December 22, 2032, with estimates indicating a 4.3 percent probability of impact. The update follows new data collected in May by the James Webb Space Telescope, which allowed scientists to refine the asteroid's projected orbit.
The updated data narrowed asteroid 2024 YR4's predicted path by 20 percent, leading to the increased likelihood of a lunar collision. Despite the increased likelihood, NASA emphasizes that even if the asteroid were to hit the Moon, it would not alter the Moon's orbit or cause any serious effects.
"The Webb data have improved our knowledge of where the asteroid will be on December 22, 2032, by nearly 20 percent," said a NASA statement. NASA considers an actual impact on the Moon by asteroid 2024 YR4 to be unlikely at this time and stresses that such a collision would not alter the Moon's orbit.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first discovered on December 27, 2024, with numerous telescopes observing the celestial body. Initial size estimates ranged from 40 to 90 meters, but infrared measurements from the James Webb Space Telescope have now constrained its size to approximately 60 meters in diameter.
"The way that the orbit improved made the position move away from the Earth, but it moved toward the Moon. So there's like almost a 4 percent chance it's going to hit the Moon. That means there's a better than 96 percent chance it's going to miss the Moon, but if it did hit the Moon, it really would be pretty spectacular!" said Dr. Andrew Rivkin, an astronomer from the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory who led the team that conducted the new analysis, in an interview with IFLScience.
The concern over asteroid 2024 YR4 initially arose in early 2025 when it was temporarily considered a possible threat to Earth due to initial predictions showing more than a 1 percent chance of impact. By February, the risk was thought to have climbed to 3.1 percent, reported Münchner Merkur. However, as more observations were made, particularly using telescopes in Chile and Hawaii, the chances of an Earth impact fell dramatically.
NASA and other agencies have since confirmed that asteroid 2024 YR4 poses no risk to Earth in 2032 or at any time in the future based on updated orbit data, as noted by The Economic Times. NASA's updated assessment indicates a current chance of impacting Earth at around 0.004 percent, effectively ruling out any threat.
"It would be visible from Earth and there would even be new lunar meteorites that would arrive on Earth (nothing dangerous), but there is no guarantee. Definitely, a new observable moon crater would be the outcome!" said Richard Moissl, the head of the European Space Agency's Planetary Defence Office, in an interview with IFLScience in February.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is currently not visible from Earth. "Asteroid 2024 YR4 is now too far away to be observed with space-based or ground-based telescopes," stated NASA, according to Folha de S.Paulo. The asteroid will approach again in 2028, allowing scientists to monitor it further. "NASA plans to make further observations when the asteroid's orbit around the Sun brings it back close to Earth in 2028," reported Münchner Merkur.
Astronomer Pawan Kumar told The Economic Times that there is no danger even if asteroid 2024 YR4 hits the Moon. "Any debris from asteroid 2024 YR4 would burn up in Earth's atmosphere," he added. Kumar also pointed out that tracking this asteroid acted as a complete rehearsal for how Earth might respond to a real threat. "Asteroid 2024 YR4 has already allowed researchers to test all stages of planetary defense—from detection to public communication," he said.
"Impacts of asteroids on the lunar surface are quite common, mainly because our satellite does not have an atmosphere to protect it like Earth does," explained Plícida Arcoverde, an astronomer from the National Observatory, according to Folha de S.Paulo. She added that if asteroid 2024 YR4 does hit the Moon, it will result in the formation of a crater.
NASA continues to monitor asteroid 2024 YR4 closely. The agency noted that small changes in data often affect impact probabilities, emphasizing the importance of ongoing observations.
As for Earth, the asteroid's closest approach in 2032 will be at a safe distance. Future opportunities to observe the asteroid in 2028 and beyond will help scientists gather more data about its shape and composition, further refining predictions of its behavior.
Produced with the assistance of a news-analysis system.