Turkey’s new role: How Erdogan is supporting Hamas, challenging Israel - opinion

“I hope you enjoyed Turkey and its breathtaking scenery. Unfortunately, I’m not sure you’ll be able to come back here in a few years.”

Those were the words of our Turkish guide at the end of a three-day trek through the spectacular Kaçkar Mountains in eastern Turkey. During the summer he worked as a hiking guide to supplement his income, while during the academic year he served as a university lecturer in Istanbul.

From within the Turkish academic world, he watched the country’s transformation unfold. Long before many outsiders recognized it, he identified the growing religious radicalization and the rapidly intensifying hostility toward Israel that was being cultivated by Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, then serving as prime minister under president Abdullah Gül.

At the same time, Ankara deliberately pursued an ideological deterioration in its relations with Israel.

Despite Erdoğan’s increasingly inflammatory rhetoric, repeated provocations, and open support for anti-Israeli terrorism, Israel continued for years to treat Turkey as a complicated but necessary partner. As a NATO member and an important economic partner, Turkey remained a country with which Israel believed it had strong incentives to preserve relations.

That reality has changed dramatically. Especially since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas War, Turkey has evolved from a difficult partner into a regional actor seeking to position itself as a leading force in the anti-Israel camp.

The latest joint announcement by Shin Bet (Israel’s Security Agency) and the Israel Defense Forces should be viewed as more than another counterterrorism success. According to the statement, dozens of terrorist attacks directed by Hamas operatives based in Turkey were thwarted. This is not merely another intelligence achievement. It is a strategic warning signal highlighting a growing threat emerging from the north.

Where Turkey once tolerated Hamas activity through deliberate indifference, it now appears to actively enable, facilitate, and encourage it.

Hamas leadership continues to plan, finance, and direct terrorist operations from Turkish territory while benefiting from a secure environment provided by Ankara. After years of operating safely from Qatar, Hamas increasingly enjoys a protected operational base inside Turkey.

Yet understanding the significance of this trend requires looking beyond Hamas alone.

Syria has undergone dramatic upheaval, leaving it far less capable of posing a conventional threat to Israel. Even Qatar, which previously advanced anti-Israeli influence through financial support and political leverage, has stepped back to preserve its standing with Washington.

In less than three years, the Iranian-led Axis of Resistance has been significantly weakened.

But regional geopolitics abhors a vacuum.

When one threatening power declines, another inevitably attempts to occupy the space it leaves behind.

Turkey has recognized this opportunity. Under the leadership of the increasingly neo-Ottoman-minded Erdoğan, Ankara no longer seeks merely to remain an influential regional power. It aspires to become the leading Sunni Muslim power and the dominant strategic actor across the Middle East.

Erdoğan understands that influence in the Muslim world ultimately rests not only on rhetoric but also on hard power.

Accordingly, Turkey has invested heavily in building one of the region’s most advanced military establishments.

It has developed an impressive domestic defense industry, expanded its ballistic missile capabilities, become a global exporter of drones and advanced weapons systems, extended its military presence from Libya to the Caucasus, and pursued increasingly assertive policies in Syria, Iraq, and the Eastern Mediterranean.

As Turkey continues modernizing its air force, navy, missile forces, and defense industries, the qualitative military gap separating the Turkish Armed Forces from the Israel Defense Forces is gradually narrowing.

Within this broader strategic vision, Hamas is not a liability. It is an asset.

Erdoğan understands that positioning himself as the leading defender of the Palestinian cause strengthens his legitimacy throughout the Muslim world, expands Turkey’s regional influence, and reinforces his own leadership credentials. Support for Hamas is therefore not merely ideological or emotional. It serves as an important instrument of Turkish grand strategy.

This is precisely where Israel must fundamentally reassess its strategic assumptions, particularly in light of the lessons of October 7.

Militant Islamist ideology should never be dismissed as mere rhetoric. It often represents a political program translated into long-term strategic action. A country possessing significant economic resources, an expanding defense industry, and one of the strongest militaries in the region may one day choose to employ those capabilities.

The fact that Turkey currently wages its campaign against Israel indirectly, through terrorist organizations, diplomatic pressure, information warfare, and proxy actors, does not necessarily indicate a lack of willingness for confrontation. Rather, Ankara appears to understand that indirect competition currently offers greater strategic advantages while avoiding the costs of open conflict.

Those who dismiss Erdoğan’s statements as political theater, arguing that Turkey’s NATO membership precludes any meaningful confrontation with Israel, overlook an important transformation in his public discourse. For years, Erdoğan primarily framed his rhetoric around the Palestinian cause. Increasingly, however, he speaks of Turkey’s responsibility to lead and defend the Muslim world as a whole.

This is a significant conceptual shift that should not be underestimated.

When such rhetoric is accompanied by expanding military capabilities, assertive regional intervention, and deepening ties with Hamas, Israel must seriously evaluate not only Turkey’s capabilities but also its long-term strategic intentions.

When a state consistently provides a safe haven for terrorist organizations, systematically builds military power, and positions itself at the forefront of the anti-Israel camp, these are not isolated developments. They form a coherent strategic pattern.

But in today’s rapidly evolving regional vacuum, one that Erdoğan is moving aggressively to fill, the continuation of these trends, coupled with growing international legitimacy, could transform Turkey from Israel’s favorite vacation destination into one of the country’s most significant strategic challenges during the coming decade.