In the aftermath of Israel’s recent conflicts, many are contemplating the “Day After” scenarios for the region: how to stabilize the Middle East, reduce tensions between Israel and its adversaries, and ensure Israel remains a safer place for its citizens. While wars continue in Iran, the Gulf, and Lebanon, it’s crucial to start planning for the long-term future, even amid ongoing hostilities.

One of the most significant “Day After” issues for long-term stability will be the status of Israel’s borders with Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, and Jordan. This isn’t about territorial expansion or violating international law, but about the critical need for buffer zones that separate Israeli civilians from terrorists and hostile state actors. Adversaries in the North and South have been attacking Israeli civilians for decades, with weapons flowing into the country and infiltrators crossing borders.

Egypt and Jordan remain key sources of weapons smuggling, much of it via drones used by criminal gangs and terrorist networks. I witnessed this firsthand while traveling along Israel’s longest border, the Jordan River Valley, with Israeli military intelligence (MI), and in briefings with MI in the South.

Pre-October 7: The illusion of containment

Before October 7, 2023, Israel believed it could contain threats from Hezbollah and Hamas, both of whom had made their intentions to destroy Israel clear. Many Israeli officials and analysts dismissed these threats as bluster, particularly in the South.

Along Israel’s northern and southern borders, residents often saw Hezbollah and Hamas fighters near the frontier, while hi-tech fences and military patrols were the only defenses. In the South, thousands of Gazans worked in Israeli communities. While I was in the North, with an Israeli lieutenant colonel, I witnessed a Hezbollah tent on Israeli territory along the Israeli-Syrian-Lebanese border just three days before October 7.

A Hezbollah flag waves among a destroyed building following an Israeli airstrike during a media tour in Baalbek, Lebanon, on March 23, 2026.
A Hezbollah flag waves among a destroyed building following an Israeli airstrike during a media tour in Baalbek, Lebanon, on March 23, 2026. (credit: Jonathan Labusch / Middle East Images / AFP via Getty Images)

The brutal attacks that followed exposed the vulnerability of this approach.

The demand for a visible military presence

Since October 7, Israeli public opinion has shifted drastically: the people now demand a visible, substantial military presence along the borders. They no longer want Hamas and Hezbollah operatives disguised as Gazan and Lebanese civilians a stone’s throw away from their homes. For Israelis in both the North and South, hi-tech protection is only effective when supported by a strong, noticeable military presence.

For long-term security, Israel needs strategic depth in the form of buffer zones within enemy or potential adversary territories. These zones are not just important for national defense but also for preserving the morale and safety of communities living along Israel’s borders.

Five key border zones requiring buffer zones

Israel’s border security strategy must address five critical areas to ensure the safety of its citizens and prevent mass emigration from border communities.

The Gaza border communities

The Gaza border communities were deeply traumatized by the events of October 7, when Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorists and civilians carried out horrific terrorist attacks. Although most residents returned after the war, the threat remains. Hamas continues to strengthen its control over Gaza (Red Zone) and is preparing to confront Israel at a time of their choosing.

The Western and Northern Galilee

Lebanon has been under Hezbollah’s effective control for decades, with influence stretching from the Israeli border to southern Beirut and the northern Bekaa Valley. Most of Lebanon’s large Shi’ite population supports Hezbollah, which has also infiltrated the Lebanese Armed Forces. 

To protect the Galilee, Israel needs an extended buffer zone along the northern border, since promises from Lebanon to enforce UN Security Council Resolutions 1559 and 1701 to disarm the group are unlikely to be realized.

The Golan Heights

The Golan Heights, captured by Israel in 1967, provides a critical strategic advantage over Syria. From 1948 to 1967, Syria used this high ground to target communities in the Hula Valley of northern Galilee.

While the border is relatively calm due to IDF buffer zones established after Bashar Assad’s regime collapsed, hostile elements, including ISIS factions and Sunni Bedouins, remain active. Israel’s control of the Golan and positions like Mount Hermon, overlooking Lebanon and Syria, remains essential, especially given uncertainty over whether the Shaara regime might turn jihadist.

The Jordan River Valley

The Jordan River Valley has long been a porous border for weapons and drug smuggling, with criminal gangs and terrorists frequently using it to transfer contraband. Israel is investing in a multi-billion-dollar fence along the Jordan River to disrupt these illicit activities.

However, the greater threat lies in the potential destabilization of Jordan. A weakened Jordan could fall under the control of radical Islamist groups, further endangering Israeli security. If Jordan fails to secure its side of the border, Israel will need to act decisively.

The Egypt-Israel Border

Since the 1979 Camp David Accords, Egypt and Israel have maintained a cold peace. However, Egypt has violated the terms of the agreement by allowing weapons to flow into the eastern Sinai, where underground facilities conceal offensive assets.

Before October 7, Egypt either turned a blind eye or profited from the transfer of weapons to Gaza via tunnels or the Rafah crossing. Today, drones from Egypt continue to smuggle weapons into both Israel and Gaza.

The need for buffer zones: a strategic necessity

In recent years, some have argued that strategic depth is irrelevant in the age of missiles. However, this perspective overlooks the harsh realities faced by Israelis living in the Gaza border communities, the Negev, the Jordan River Valley, the Golan Heights, and the northern and western Galilee. These areas are constantly under threat, and without strategic depth, Israel’s future security is at risk.

The international community and future US administrations may challenge Israel’s border and buffer zone strategies, despite their basis in artificial borders drawn after World War I. Yet these zones are vital for protecting Israeli citizens.

After October 7, Israelis demand a permanent military presence along the borders. More than a matter of strategy, buffer zones are essential to Israel’s survival and long-term security and prosperity.

The writer is director of the Middle East Political Information Network and the senior security editor of The Jerusalem Report. He frequently briefs Congress, think tanks, and the State Department on Middle East affairs and their impact on US national security.