In January 1991, as American-led coalition forces began pounding Saddam Hussein’s army in Kuwait and Iraq, Israelis opened their evenings with a ritual that would define a generation’s memory: sealing a room with plastic sheeting and waiting. Scud missiles rained down on Tel Aviv and Haifa. Israel’s military, one of the most capable forces in the world, sat on its hands.
The reason was not lack of courage or capability. It was coalition arithmetic. Saudi Arabia, Syria, and other Arab states had agreed to stand alongside the United States against Iraq on one condition: Israel must stay out. The moment Israel fired back at Saddam’s missiles, the Arab world would have been seen as fighting alongside the Jewish state, and the coalition would have shattered. So Israel absorbed the attacks in silence – 41 Scud missiles in all – and did nothing.
That was 35 years ago. On February 28, 2026, in the hours after Israel and the United States launched a joint strike against Iran’s leadership, military command, and nuclear infrastructure, something extraordinary happened. Iran retaliated, not just against Israel and American bases, but against Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Jordan, and Bahrain.
Missiles fell on Riyadh. Shahed drones struck Dubai’s Palm Jumeirah. Qatar’s air defenses scrambled against Iranian ballistic missiles. Bahrain called an Iranian strike on the US Fifth Fleet headquarters “treacherous.” Saudi Arabia – a kingdom that for decades kept Israel at arm’s length – condemned Iran’s attacks in “the strongest terms” and placed all its capabilities at the disposal of its Arab neighbors under fire.
The map has flipped
Think of it as a map. In 1948, 1967, and every existential war Israel has fought, the arrows on that map pointed inward – Iraq, Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon converging on a small state that stood alone in the center. In 1991, the same picture held.
Now, look at today’s map. The arrows from Tehran fan outward, striking not Israel alone but the entire Arab Sunni world. Iran has, in a single day, done what decades of Israeli diplomacy could not: It has clarified to every Arab capital that the enemy they share is not Israel.
The irony is almost too large to absorb. The Islamic Republic, which for 47 years built its identity around the destruction of the Jewish state, has become the force pushing the Arab world toward Israel. Every missile that fell on Riyadh strengthened the case for the Abraham Accords. Every drone strike on the UAE reminded its leaders that the threat they face is not Jewish; it is Iranian, revolutionary, and indiscriminate.
Seeds of peace
Iran’s decision to unleash Hamas on October 7, 2023, was an act of strategic desperation. Tehran recognized that normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia was becoming inevitable and calculated that a spectacular atrocity could derail that process. For a time, it was right. But by attacking the same Gulf states it had long claimed to champion, Iran has shattered its own narrative – and perhaps its own future.
The seeds of the post-war Middle East are being planted right now, in the hours of crisis and the calls between foreign ministers. What comes next should be a formalized, expanded version of the Abraham Accords – not as a diplomatic nicety but as a genuine security architecture. Joint air defense, shared intelligence, coordinated responses to Iranian proxies from Yemen to Iraq, and the economic integration that makes peace self-reinforcing because the cost of conflict becomes prohibitive for everyone.
Above all, it means finally completing what October 7 interrupted: Saudi-Israeli normalization. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman understood before this war that his kingdom’s future lay in economic diversification, technology, and regional stability. Those interests have not changed; if anything, Iran’s strikes on Riyadh have concentrated Saudi minds. A Saudi Arabia bombed by Iran in the same week as Israel is a Saudi Arabia that has run out of reasons to keep Israel at a distance.
Building something durable
I am not naive enough to think the road from here is straight or short. There will be political complications, wounded pride, and moments where the old instincts reassert themselves. The Palestinian question has not disappeared and must be addressed seriously if any durable architecture is to hold.
But I am old enough to remember when a Jordanian king at peace with Israel seemed like fantasy, when Egyptian and Israeli officers cooperating seemed impossible, and when an Emirati delegation visiting Jerusalem seemed unthinkable. All of those things happened – not because idealists dreamed them up in conference rooms but because the facts on the ground made them necessary.
The facts on the ground, as of February 28, 2026, are these: Iran attacked eight countries in one day. Six of them are Arab. The Arab world is now in the same fight as Israel. The map has flipped.
When the guns fall silent, let’s make sure we build something worthy of that moment.
The author is a businessman and politically active philanthropist who was appointed by president George W. Bush to the US Commission for the Preservation of America’s Heritage Abroad and has been reappointed by every president since. More information about him is available on his website, harleylippman.com