The attack on Iran is undoubtedly an event of historic proportions that will certainly have many consequences for the Middle East and even beyond.
Forty-seven years after Ayatollah Khomeini returned to Iran from exile and established a murderous regime that terrorized the entire region, it seems that it is only a matter of time before the Iranian people (who must seize the opportunity given to them with both hands) are set free.
However, it is not only the Iranian people who will be able to breathe a sigh of relief if the ayatollah regime disappears from the map of the Middle East. Israel is expected to be the biggest beneficiary of the fall of the late Khamenei’s reign of terror.
While many in the Jewish state took part in a move that will hopefully lead to the overthrow of the Iranian regime, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu deserves full credit for it. After Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar decided to launch the October 7, 2023, attack that caught Israel by surprise, Netanyahu promised that not only would Hamas pay dearly for the murderous act, but also that the entire Middle East would soon change.
Many in Israel who belong to the left side of the political spectrum severely criticized the prime minister during the war for not pursuing a ceasefire. Yet Netanyahu, who opposed a reckless hostage deal that would keep Hamas in control of the Gaza Strip, chose to implement his strategy to lead change in the Middle East. His choice also came at the cost of a confrontation with the Biden administration, which in turn led to an arms embargo on the Jewish state.
More than any other leader in Israel and the entire world, Netanyahu simply understood that the path to peace does not pass through the appeasement of radical elements, who want to return the world to dark times.
Alternatively, he believed that this could only be achieved by breaking those elements.
Now, after two and a half years of fighting, Netanyahu’s strategy has led to the military defeat of those murderous elements who have terrorized Israel since the 1990s. Neither Sinwar – who certainly did not think about how much his decision to attack the Jewish state would lead to a chain reaction that would destroy the axis of evil – Nasrallah, nor Khamenei will be able to threaten Israel’s existence any longer.
The fighting in Iran is expected to end soon, at which point the Israeli political system will return to the 2026 election campaign. The main conundrum is what impact Operation Roaring Lion will have on the political balance of power, which has seen many changes since the 2022 elections.
After these ended in a major victory of 64 seats for the right-wing parties, it was initially the judicial reform and the following Kaplan protests that led to the bloc’s decline in power. Thus, at the end of September 2023, most polls gave the right-wing bloc 54 seats, of which 28 went to Netanyahu and the Likud. His party lost four seats in the 2022 elections to Benny Gantz’s National Unity, which rose from 12 seats to 27 and became a governing alternative.
Likud loses support following the October 7 massacre
However, a month after the October 7 massacre, the right-wing bloc fell to 45 seats, with the Likud crashing to just 17, while National Unity rose to 36. Later, the achievements of the war in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, along with changes within the bloc of Netanyahu’s opponents, would lead to a change in the political balance of power. These included the withdrawal of National Unity from the emergency government, the establishment of The Democrats led by Yair Golan, the return to the scene of former prime minister Naftali Bennett, and the separation of Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot.
Thus, most polls conducted before the current campaign in Iran show Netanyahu leading with 26 seats compared to Bennett’s 21, with the right-wing bloc strengthening to 52.
In conclusion, time will tell whether a major event such as the overthrow of the regime in Iran will lead to a victory for the Netanyahu bloc in the 2026 elections. Following the 12 Day War against Iran, the prime minister managed to retain the support of four seats from Likud voters in the 2022 elections, who had meanwhile “parked” with Gantz and then Bennett.
Hence, it is possible that this pattern will repeat itself very soon. What is certain is that the 2026 election campaign is expected to be particularly fascinating...
The writer is a lecturer and research fellow at the University of South Wales, UK, and author of Collapse: Israeli Labor Party 1992-2024.