Damascus under interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa is quietly trying to absorb southern Syria. Israel’s best defense against this creeping Islamist state is to ensure it fails.
Right now, behind closed doors, Syria’s new Islamist leadership is preparing a strategic takeover of Israel’s backyard. Sharaa’s government in Damascus plans to execute a “Northern Scenario” in the Druze-majority province of Sweida within the next two months. Under the guise of a US- and Jordanian-brokered “road map” to curb border drug smuggling, Sharaa’s internal security forces are preparing to roll into the province to enforce “peaceful integration.”
For Israel, this is a glaring red flashing light. If Sharaa successfully pacifies Sweida, an internationally whitewashed, jihadist-born regime will permanently anchor itself along the Jordanian border, directly flanking the Golan Heights.
But there is a fatal flaw in Damascus’s plan – and within that flaw lies a historic, strategic opportunity for Israel.
The illusion of 'integration'
Sharaa is attempting to use local proxies to enforce his will. His strategy relies heavily on handing administrative control to Sheikh Hikmat Al-Hijri and his son Salman, whose “National Guard” currently dominates the area.
However, the Druze street is actively revolting against this arrangement. The local population views the Hijris as catastrophic failures and illegitimate proxies for a central government they fundamentally distrust. The Druze of Sweida know exactly who Sharaa is: a rebranded warlord whose ideological DNA is inextricably linked to al-Qaeda and who shares the same fundamentalist roots as ISIS.
The internal friction has already reached a boiling point. Just days ago, an armed group linked to Salman al-Hijri’s faction kidnapped Sheikh Yahya al-Hajjar, the former commander of the revered Rijal al-Karama (Men of Dignity) movement. This unprecedented violation of Druze religious and social norms has fractured the local security architecture. The people of Sweida are making it clear: they will not submit to an Islamist government in Damascus, even if their nominal leadership signs a deal.
The Islamist threat to the Golan
Israel has traditionally viewed the fragmentation of southern Syria as a chaotic threat to be contained. But the alternative – a unified south under the thumb of Sharaa’s rebranded Islamists – is far worse.
Damascus’s stated goal of deploying state security to the Jordanian border is a Trojan horse. While the international community (including US envoy Tom Barrack) views this as a necessary step to stop the rampant Captagon smuggling left over from the previous regime, the reality is darker. Deploying Sharaa’s forces to Sweida is a territorial conquest designed to subjugate a fierce minority population and box in the IDF.
If Sharaa establishes full sovereignty over Sweida, the Golan Heights will face a unified, hostile, and deeply entrenched Islamist front. A government born from Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) cannot be trusted to police the border with Israel; it will inevitably provide sanctuary and state-sanctioned cover to radical Sunni actors and ISIS remnants operating in the Badia desert.
The 'Middle East Switzerland' solution
Israel must shift its paradigm. Instead of fearing the collapse of Damascus’s authority in the south, Jerusalem should quietly recognize the strategic value of a breakaway Sweida.
A de facto autonomous, neutral Druze zone is the ultimate buffer. The Druze of Sweida are fiercely independent, heavily armed, and viscerally anti-Islamist. If supported – even indirectly – in their resistance to Sharaa’s “integration” plan, Sweida could become a “Middle East Switzerland”: a heavily fortified, neutral canton that refuses entry to Sharaa’s forces, ISIS remnants, and hostile militias alike.
This is not about nation-building; it is cold, hard realpolitik. A Sweida that governs itself is a Sweida that naturally blocks the expansion of Sharaa’s Islamist project. It acts as an organic, indigenous shield for both Israel’s eastern flank and Jordan’s northern border.
The window is closing
Damascus has set a two-month timeline to force this integration. Israel cannot afford to sit on the sidelines while an Islamist regime consolidates power mere miles from the Golan.
Israel must utilize its diplomatic leverage in Washington to expose the “integration” road map for what it is: an Islamist border-expansion project dressed up as an international security initiative.
The Druze of Sweida are currently fighting to keep Sharaa out. Their survival is no longer just a Syrian internal matter; it is a core Israeli national security interest. A breakaway Sweida is no longer a chaotic risk – it is Israel’s best security bet against the new Damascus.
The writer, a fellow at the Middle East Forum, is a policy analyst and writer based in Morocco. Follow him on X: @amineayoubx.