Diplomats are dismissing Israel’s decision to recognize Somaliland as a reckless disruption. I see it differently. It is a moment of rare strategic clarity in a region drowning in failed dogma.
While institutions wring their hands, Israel has acted on a fundamental truth: The 30-year pretense that a stable, functional Somali state is just around the corner is a dangerous fantasy. This recognition is not an act of aggression but a pragmatic masterstroke that exposes a broken status quo, and it is a move that the United States and responsible African powers should support urgently.
This is not about diplomacy for its own sake; it is about survival. We are witnessing the consolidation of an Iranian-backed terror corridor along the Red Sea. The collaboration between Houthi rebels and Somalia’s al-Shabab is no longer speculative; it is operational, involving arms, money, and the grim possibility that Iranian drone technology will flood the Horn.
Somaliland the only credible route to stability
For too long, the international community has treated Somalia as a sovereign abstraction while its territory serves as a launchpad for threats to global commerce. By acknowledging Somaliland’s three decades of de facto sovereignty, Israel has secured a legitimate partner that can help sever this Iranian lifeline. Somaliland is not the problem; it is the only credible route to stability in northern Somalia.
Predictably, the outcry from the African Union, the Arab League, and other regional actors is loud, but it rings hollow. This united front is a façade, masking the region’s deep fractures.
Where is Arab solidarity when Egypt and the UAE fund opposing factions in Sudan’s civil war? Where is African unity when Ethiopia and Egypt face off over the Nile? These powers are already engaged in a ruthless, realpolitik scramble for influence. Israel has simply chosen a side, aligning with actors like the UAE and Ethiopia that are investing in the Horn’s future, not its collapse. The condemnation voiced by these regional organizations and rival states is not a principled stand; it is the anger of rivals being outmaneuvered. We should recognize this hypocrisy for what it is.
Here is the central argument: The West, especially the United States, must stop hiding behind outdated diplomatic conventions and follow Israel’s lead. Continuing to sacrifice Somaliland’s democratic reality on the altar of a “unified Somalia” that exists only on maps is willful blindness. It cedes ground to China, which backs Mogadishu in courting favor and opposing Taiwan’s ties to Hargeisa, and to Russia, which lurks nearby, seeking port access. Washington’s hesitant stance undercuts a critical ally, Israel, and squanders a potential partner, Somaliland, that shares Western interests in maritime security and counterterrorism.
The path forward is clear. First, the US should immediately upgrade its engagement with Somaliland, moving beyond informal talks to establish a formal diplomatic presence. Second, key African powers such as Kenya and Ethiopia should be encouraged to lead a continental rethink, framing recognition not as secession but as ratification of a proven, peaceful reality. Finally, this shift should be leveraged to isolate the real aggressors: the Tehran-backed networks that thrive on the very chaos this recognition aims to end.
Israel’s move has reset the board. It was a gamble born of strategic imperative, not caprice. The question now is whether the so-called international community will cling to fictions that have fostered instability or reward the stability Somaliland has built against all odds. The world’s next move should be to recognize reality, before shared adversaries write the next chapter for all of us.
Bishop Dennis Nthumbi is the Africa director of the Israel Allies Foundation, president of the Golgotha Christian Foundation, and international bishop of the African American Clergy Leaders Association.