The collapse of the Islamic Republic of Iran is inevitable. There is no doubt about its trajectory, even if the exact timing remains uncertain. As former Mossad director Yossi Cohen noted in a September interview with CNN, the regime “will certainly not survive the next decade.”
When the head of the Shi’ite theocratic octopus in Tehran is cut off, the roots of the vast clandestine network of Islamic terrorism across the so-called Shi’ite Crescent will begin to wither. The security architecture of the Middle East will transform. Yet even after the regime falls, remnants of its clerical militias will likely regroup in underground mosques and paramilitary cells, seeking power and wealth in the post-theocratic Iran. The country may struggle for years with Shi’a Islamist gangs, but the system itself is running out of time.
For decades, Mossad’s secret war against the mullahs has steadily weakened Iran’s ability to project malign influence. Israel has painstakingly worked to nullify Iran’s “ring of fire” and to degrade the Islamic Republic’s aggressive reach. From a realist perspective, the Tehran regime is already a fading actor in shaping the region’s future. Its noise is louder than its actual capability. Only the Quds Force and MOIS continue attempting to rebuild proxy networks in Gaza, Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria, but with increasingly reduced effectiveness.
The recent 12-day confrontation between Israel and the Islamic Republic revealed something deeper: the emergence of a new spirit in the region and the start of the most revolutionary geopolitical changes in decades. Saudi Arabia and Israel are quietly moving toward becoming the two true pillars of power in the modern Middle East.
Failed pretenders to regional hegemony
Turkey once aspired to regional dominance, but its alignment with ISIS elements, Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood, and its cooperation with Qatar and Tehran in promoting Islamist radicalism eroded its credibility.
The Islamic Republic, empowered by missiles, drones, nuclear ambitions, and decades of exported terrorism, also claimed regional hegemony. Yet its record of half a century of atrocities, destabilization, sectarian violence, and economic ruin disqualifies it from speaking about peace or stability.
From Khomeini’s own writings in Velayat-e Faqih (1971), the regime’s project was never about religion; it was about securing power and wealth for Shi’a clerics under a fabricated aura of sanctity. The goal was to challenge Saudi Arabia’s leadership of the Sunni world by igniting sectarian conflict and exporting Shi’ite revolution. Tehran even attempted an infamous terror plot during Hajj in 1987, sending explosives to Mecca, which were exposed immediately by Saudi intelligence.
Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the Abraham Accords
As the United States gradually reduced its direct engagement in the Middle East, Russia and China viewed the vacuum as a strategic opportunity. Yet the most consequential development has been the deepening quiet cooperation between Israel and Saudi Arabia, accelerated by the Abraham Accords and mutual intelligence coordination.
Israel’s pragmatic outreach to Riyadh has proven transformative. The accords demonstrated that the Gulf states’ fear of Tehran was the main barrier to open cooperation with Israel. Realizing that the Iranian regime is a paper tiger with declining capabilities, Gulf leaders increasingly see Israel not as a rival, but as a necessary partner.
For the Shi’a clerics in Tehran, the prospect of the birthplace of Islam openly aligning with the Jewish state is a nightmare: it exposes the emptiness of their ideological propaganda and their decades of anti-Israel and anti-Western rhetoric.
Indeed, a Saudi–Israeli strategic alignment is one of the forces accelerating the eventual collapse of Iran’s theocratic regime. Moscow, embroiled in its own crises, is in no position to rescue Tehran; nor is it necessarily interested in a democratic, sovereign Iran replacing a controllable puppet.
Israel’s strategic posture
Israel must continue defending itself against the Islamic Republic’s threats, including weapons of mass destruction in the hands of an enemy state. The Mossad’s mission is far from complete. Tehran remains unremittingly hostile.
Since Khomeini’s emergence, supported by radical Islamist militants and encouraged by Egypt’s Gamal Abdel Nasser, Tehran has spread disinformation, portraying the late shah of Iran as a puppet of Israel. In reality, the shah’s 1959 de facto recognition of Israel reflected strategic foresight. He understood the realities of international politics and served as a stabilizing pillar in the region. When he fell, the entire structure of regional stability collapsed, replaced by a destructive theocracy.
For 45 years, Iran’s proxies, Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and the Houthis, have pursued one objective: the annihilation of the Jewish state. Surrounding Israel with a “ring of fire” has been their irrational strategy.
The Abraham Accords, forged through secret diplomacy and years of clandestine intelligence cooperation, began to unravel that strategy.
The rise of a new Middle Eastern order
The region is now preparing for the collapse of Iran’s clerical regime. The fear among Gulf leaders of post-regime chaos in Iran is slowly fading. The GCC states understand that regime change in Iran is not only possible, but it is increasingly necessary.
The Iranian people, through nationwide protests and a powerful nationalist spirit, “My soul for Iran,” have shown that they reject both the ruling theocracy and its false alternatives, including the MEK and regime-aligned “reformists,” which are, as Israelis increasingly understand, two sides of the same coin.
Israel correctly recognized that empowering separatist groups or exiled cults would not help. The real power lies inside Iran, within its people.
The Mossad’s role in reshaping the Middle East is central, but cooperation with Saudi Arabia and the UAE will be essential. The recent 12-day conflict highlighted this new strategic alignment.
Saudi Arabia, MBS, and the strategic window
Today, Saudi–Israeli cooperation offers something unprecedented: a constructive, stabilizing, forward-looking partnership.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s vision, together with the strategic clarity of the UAE’s MBZ, may become a game-changer in supporting a transition in Iran.
Expecting the United States or any American president, including Trump, to directly “green-light” regime change is unrealistic. Regional leaders must take the initiative, coordinate openly, and then invite U.S. support when momentum is already underway, just as Washington supported Israel during the recent conflict.
Behind closed doors, Gulf states already express willingness but fear reprisals from Iran. That fear, after half a century, is finally breaking.
Looking ahead
Saudi intelligence cooperation with Mossad is constructive and significant. Together, these two pivotal states can architect a new Middle East and outline a roadmap for lasting stability.
Qatar, meanwhile, remains aligned with Tehran and plays a double game with Washington. After the fall of Iran’s theocracy, Doha’s position will be diminished; its partnership with “evil” will not be forgotten.
The Islamic Republic today is a fragile paper tiger, a soaked cardboard structure collapsing under its own weight. It cannot extend its influence any longer, nor can it stay afloat.
Tensions between the regime and the Iranian public are reaching a breaking point. A nationwide uprising is possible at any moment. The Iranian nation is not waiting for foreign leaders to initiate change; the people themselves will redefine the future.
The humiliating fall of the mullahs will mark the beginning of a new era. If the shifting winds of the Persian Gulf are recognized, and if Saudi Arabia and Israel take the first decisive steps, they can ensure that the post-Iran order leads to stability, not chaos.
No red carpet appears after victory, but decisive leaders know when history is offering a golden opportunity.