In the coming weeks, we will witness the beginning of phase II of the “end of war/ceasefire” deal in Gaza. Only one deceased hostage remains in Gaza. This in itself is amazing. I claimed back in September 2024 that Hamas was prepared to release all of the hostages within days in exchange for a complete end of the war. Hamas gave that to me in writing – in Arabic and in English – when I negotiated with the Hamas leadership on behalf of some of the hostage families.
Retired general Amiram Levin worked with me to present the deal to the Israeli negotiators and the prime minister because he has more public credibility on security issues than I have. He was told the same thing that Israeli negotiators told me – Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government were not prepared to end the war.
No one except me believed that Hamas would return all of the hostages – everyone said that Hamas will keep some hostages as an insurance policy. Think of all the lives that could have been saved if the war had ended in September 2024 instead of a whole year later.
The war ended when US President Donald Trump decided that the time had come to end the war. From the time that Trump returned to the White House until September 9, 2025, when Israel failed to assassinate the Hamas leadership in Doha, Trump was willing to let Israel try to totally defeat Hamas.
Even though US special envoy Steve Witkoff was negotiating with Hamas through the mediators of Qatar and Egypt, and with my assistance, until the failed Israeli attack the US believed what Israel told them – that Hamas could be brought to its knees and surrender. This was the main difference of opinions that I had with Witkoff. I repeatedly claimed that Hamas would never surrender to Israel. I said that Hamas would be willing to fight to the very last Gazan. After the Israeli attack, the cost of the war to the United States and to Trump became unbearable, and that is when Trump decided that the war had to end.
What is phase II?
Now, as we enter phase II of the deal, there are still many more questions than answers. We don’t know who will be the members of the Board of Peace headed by Trump. We have heard that the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will be a member, but what about Netanyahu? I seriously doubt we will see Netanyahu on the Board of Peace.
We expect there to be an executive committee headed by people like Tony Blair, Jared Kushner, Steve Witkoff, “and their friends,” as one of the top Americans working on phase II described it. This executive committee will supervise the work of the Palestinian Committee – a team of technocrats in Gaza that will govern its day-to-day life. This body will not have anyone connected to Hamas or Palestinian Islamic Jihad on it. Initially, it was said that no one who is connected to the Palestinian Authority will be a member of the governing committee, but that may not be true once it is announced. The Palestinian Committee head has not yet been decided; that person will be a liaison between it and the executive committee.
The Palestinian Committee will be deploying a new Palestinian police force, which have been vetted by the Americans and have been going through training in Jordan and Egypt. The new police force will be subordinate to the Palestinian Committee and will be charged with beginning the process of decommissioning weapons from Hamas.
My assessment is that some of the thousands of new Hamas recruits over the past months who are not really Hamas supporters will be incorporated into the new Palestinian police force. Many of them were given a couple of hundred dollars and a gun and became Hamas recruits. They would be very happy to take more money from the new government, wear a new uniform, and swear allegiance to the new Palestinian government that is not Hamas.
International protection for and from Gaza
The International Stability Force (ISF) will be deployed. The problem the United States is facing is that the mandate for the force is not very clear. None of the potential countries that will send forces to Gaza want to be in the position to disarm Hamas or to confront Israeli soldiers. The ISF’s mandate and rules of engagement need to be more detailed in order for the force to be deployed in Gaza.
It is safe to say that Turkey will participate in the ISF despite Israeli objections. I have proposed to the Americans that the price tag for Turkish participation should be the renewal of full diplomatic relations between Turkey and Israel. I am not sure that the Americans have raised that with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. They should. Turkish participation in the ISF could be very positive despite Israeli fears.
Egypt will also participate in the ISF, which is essential. The Turks and the Egyptians will keep each other in check, ensuring that Hamas will remain out of controlling Gaza and rearming and posing a threat to Israel or to the people of Gaza. There will be other Arab countries participating, and probably some other Muslim countries. Hopefully, some European representatives will also be on the ground in Gaza.
The people of Gaza will be getting what Palestinians have demanded for decades – international protection against Israel. Israel will not be able to attack in Gaza when there are international troops there. The international presence should also ensure that no attacks will come against Israel from Gaza. But unlike before October 7, Israel must remain very vigilant and defend its border.
Israel will be forced by the United States to fully withdraw from Gaza once all of the elements of phase II are up and working efficiently. It is even very likely that the Rafah Crossing will become the official entry point for people and goods in and out of Gaza with EU inspection and supervision, and without it all coming through Israel. Whether Israel likes it or not, phase II of the ceasefire deal will be phase I of the establishment of the State of Palestine, with the full support of the United States of America and Israel’s best friend, Donald Trump.
Dr. Gershon Baskin is the Middle East director of the International Communities Organization and the co-head of the Alliance for Two States.