Israel finds itself, once again, in a dramatic week that has the potential to further reshape regional affairs in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) is set to embark on a highly anticipated visit to Washington, DC, today to meet with US President Donald Trump.
There are two main issues expected to be raised during the meeting, concerning Israel and affecting the regional balance of power. The first is Saudi Arabia’s desire for security guarantees, whether an official defense pact – a less likely scenario since this would require US congressional approval – or a presidential executive order that frames Riyadh’s security as a US national security interest, similar to what Qatar received just a few months ago. The second is Saudi Arabia’s request to purchase F-35 fighter jets.
Detrimental security implications
If approved, both have detrimental security implications for Israel.
Israel would essentially lose its qualitative military edge in the region - a cornerstone of US security commitments to Israel since 1968. In addition, this will constitute the second regional power with official security guarantees from the US, while Israel has yet to receive a similar guarantee. This illustrates the continuation of Trump’s foreign policy inclination to prioritize the Gulf countries, with Israel assuming a less central role.
Despite these stark disadvantages to Israel, Jerusalem signaled that it would agree to Saudi Arabia’s purchase of F-35 jets in return for a normalization agreement. However, for Riyadh to agree to normalization, it has continuously demanded a clear pathway to Palestinian statehood without, of course, detailing exactly what that entails.
Interestingly, in the most recently published US-led UN Security Council draft on Gaza, there is a specific clause that includes a pathway to Palestinian statehood. Perhaps this was recently added in order to create the necessary conditions to sway Saudi agreement to normalization.
If that is indeed the case, Israel might be facing a substantial strategic opportunity. Normalization would be a landmark accomplishment for Israel and perhaps its greatest diplomatic accomplishment since the war began. It would communicate a clear message that even a heinous act such as Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7 will not derail progress on Israel’s integration in the region. Normalization is Israel’s ultimate win over extremist elements in the region.
Is the opportunity in jeopardy?
Will the Israeli government jeopardize the opportunity? The current Israeli government is communicating an incoherent message. On the one hand, one message is that Israel is a partner in Trump’s peace plan and will welcome US security guarantees for Saudi Arabia in return for normalization. On the other hand, a significant part of the Israeli government, led by Bezalel Smotrich, is pushing for increased chaos in Judea and Samaria (West Bank), which undermines Trump’s peace efforts in Gaza.
This is happening in a few ways.
Extremist settler violence against Palestinians in Judea and Samaria is increasing unabated. While the Americans expressed concern regarding rising attacks against Palestinians, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz have hardly addressed the issue. During Katz’s tenure, a critical tool for combating settler violence, administrative detention, was canceled for Israelis. According to IDF officials speaking anonymously to Israel’s Kan 11, there is an understanding from the political echelon against implementing heavy enforcement
At the same time, Smotrich is using his authority as finance minister to weaken the Palestinian Authority (PA) to the point of collapse. Last June, Smotrich ordered a cancellation of the cooperation mechanism between Israeli and Palestinian banks.
The deadline is just around the corner
The deadline is just around the corner, and its implementation would cut off the PA from the Israeli financial system. With almost complete dependency on the Israeli shekel, it would make it virtually impossible for the PA to operate economically. The inevitable result would be the collapse of the PA and ensuing chaos.
The deterioration of the situation in the West Bank is not inevitable but rather an intended policy by Smotrich’s wing of the Israeli government. His policies act as a spoiler to realizing Israel’s strategic goals in the region by undermining Trump’s peace plan and causing the Israeli government to communicate an incoherent message vis-à-vis Washington.
This leaves the Israeli government in a weak position, and the result will be that Israel’s security interests will be disadvantaged without receiving anything in return. It is leading Israel toward implementing an “own goal” and lagging behind while Arab countries in the region are deepening their ties with the US at Israel’s expense.
The writer is director of research and policy at the Economic Cooperation Foundation (ECF) and a PhD candidate in international relations at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.