UN Security Council Resolution 2231 was formulated in October 2015 for a period of 10 years. In this resolution, the Security Council adopted the nuclear agreement between the 5+1 Group and Iran and included the imposition of sanctions on Iran if it violated the resolution. Now, with the resolution expiring, new and old horizons have opened up for Iran to develop military ties, especially in the nuclear and missile fields.
Military relations between Russia and Iran are particularly dangerous because these relations have significantly deepened since the Russian invasion of Ukraine (2022), shifting from cautious engagement to a more comprehensive partnership that includes military-technical cooperation and joint exercises. This has resulted in Iran supplying Russia with drones and missiles, while Russia has provided Iran with military technology and intelligence sharing, including air defense systems like the S-400.
The two countries formalized their strategic partnership with a 20-year treaty in early 2025, though this treaty does not include mutual defense guarantees.
Key points of the partnership
Key aspects of military cooperation are: Iran has supplied Russia with drones (UASs) and artillery shells, and helped build a drone factory in Russia. In return, Russia has provided Iran with advanced military technology, such as the S-300 and S-400 air defense systems. Russia has also provided technical, military, and intelligence-sharing support.
Iran and Russia conduct joint military exercises, and they have cooperated militarily in other conflicts, notably the Syrian civil war. In January 2025, Iran and Russia signed a 20-year comprehensive strategic partnership treaty that covers security and defense. This treaty requires them to exchange information and cooperate on regional security. However, it does not include a mutual defense clause, meaning there are no automatic military obligations to one another.
Relations between Russia and Iran are expected to intensify, especially in the areas of developing Iran’s military nuclear program, developing ballistic missiles and military procurement.
Iran, Russia, and China even wrote a joint letter to the UN secretary-general confirming the resolution’s termination, which indicates a coordinated approach. They share a loathing for the West in general and the US in particular.
Resolution 2231 banned the purchase of weapons from Iran. Now, Iran will be allowed to sell weapons and make military purchases from Russia, including advanced air defense systems and assistance in developing ballistic missile capabilities. This situation may push the Western powers to bring about a renewed Security Council resolution imposing sanctions and prohibitions on Iran, but it is likely that Russia and China will try to prevent this.
Expiration of the resolution
The expiration of Resolution 2231 is expected to affect the stability of the region, as Iran will be able to strengthen its military and nuclear power. The Gulf states will continue to live in constant fear of the Iranian threat, and Israel will be forced to develop capabilities to strike sensitive points in the Iranian security system.
The big question hanging over the situation in the Middle East is what the American administration’s position will be toward Iran’s liberation from the restrictions imposed on it by Resolution 2231, in light of the fact that Iran’s biggest supporter is Qatar, which has recently demonstrated the extent of its influence on the American administration through huge investments in the US economy.
Another question is what the position of Western European countries will be toward Iran, especially Britain, France and Germany, since these countries are subject to internal pressure from the millions of Muslim immigrants who have arrived in recent years. These immigrants are significantly influenced by the Qatari Al Jazeera channel and Qatari money that is channeled to Islamist organizations in Europe, and that promotes extremist interests through public relations firms, the purchase of politicians and influence over the media and academic institutions.
It is important to note that during the last two years, the years of the war between Israel and Hamas, there has been considerable progress in the coordinated public action of Islamist organizations in Western European countries, the US, South America, South Africa, and Australia, and this activity – which has so far been directed against Israel – could assist Iran in realizing its hegemonic ambitions over the Middle East and the Caucasus.
It is important that the leaders of the Gulf states, Israel, Jordan, Egypt, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan cooperate against Iranian hegemonic ambitions, which endanger world security after the expiration of Resolution 2231.