The first stage of President Donald Trump’s 20-point peace deal is so far shaky but nevertheless remains intact as Hamas continues to release the bodies of slain hostages, even if at a slower pace than the deal requires.
In response, the Israeli government announced that the Rafah crossing will be closed for the time being and, according to KAN 11’s Suleiman Maswadeh and Gili Cohen, is considering additional sanctions if Hamas does not continue to abide by the agreement, such as moving the IDF’s withdraw lines in Gaza.
In the meantime, Trump appears to be moving additional pieces on the regional chess board in preparation for the next stages of his plan.
Talks with Saudi Arabia
The Financial Times reported on Friday that Saudi Arabia is currently engaged in discussions with the US regarding the possibility of a defense pact. It is likely that this would come in the form of a presidential executive order, resembling the guarantees the US provided Qatar last month stating that any attack on its sovereign territory will be considered a “threat to the peace and security of the United States.”
The executive order providing US guarantees for Qatar’s security, in addition to a publicized apology from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for Israel’s botched attack in Doha, is what brought Qatar back as a mediator and ultimately led to the breakthrough in reaching an agreement on the first stage of the plan.
It now appears that Trump is seeking to pave the path toward another regional breakthrough through the provision of a similar guarantee for Saudi Arabia. Is this the prelude to the long-awaited normalization between Jerusalem and Riyadh?
Trump’s recent statements seem to indicate that this is the intended direction. Over the weekend, he told Fox News that Saudi officials have expressed to him their willingness to normalize relations with Israel “as recently as yesterday,” explaining that the opportunity has returned now that Iran is largely neutralized and with the war coming to a close in Gaza.
Normalization and Palestinian statehood
Saudi officials have in the past demanded an irreversible pathway to Palestinian statehood as a prerequisite to normalizing relations with Israel. However, even during the war, other reports suggested that mere declarative commitments to eventual Palestinian statehood would suffice in order to secure US security guarantees.
While the prospect of US security guarantees for Saudi Arabia seems near, what about the pathway to Palestinian statehood?
Trump’s plan certainly does not guarantee Palestinian statehood and the reality on the ground seems far from it, but the plan does in principle provide a possible pathway toward that end. It states that if Gaza redevelopment advances and the Palestinian Authority’s internal reforms are faithfully implemented, “the conditions may finally be in place for a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood.”
Not only does this appear in the plan but Trump has successfully cajoled Netanyahu in formally agreeing to implement the plan. Thus, with the ceasefire in Gaza intact and with Trump arguably being the most credible US guarantor in decades, perhaps these are the declarative guarantees that will “suffice” for Saudi Arabia to finally normalize relations with Israel.
Moreover, reports in Israeli media claim that Netanyahu is eyeing for elections in June 2026. If true, this hints that Netanyahu will likely try to achieve normalization with Saudi Arabia, and potentially additional Arab and Muslim countries, early enough in the implementation of Trump’s plan in order not to lose his government prematurely while executing enough of his plan for Saudis to agree to a deal.
Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir can only remain in the government for so long, and the further the plan advances, which includes provisions that they staunchly oppose such as the return of the PA to Gaza, the more the coalition is jeopardized. At the same time, more time is needed for normalization to be realized; the remains of all the hostages need to be returned, the second stage needs to commence, and a US security guarantee needs to first be delivered.
With normalization potentially in place, all Israel needs to do is continue to agree to the full implementation of Trump’s deal and let the onus be on Hamas to fulfill its terms, and thereby achieve all its war objectives – all the hostages returned and Hamas disarmed and removed from power.
If this does not happen, Israel will likely have the backing of the US for continuing to prosecute the war against Hamas. Let Trump continue without interference to move the pieces on the board and restructure the regional geopolitical landscape, which serves Israel’s interests.
The writer is director of research and policy at the Economic Cooperation Foundation and a PhD candidate in international relations at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.