Just months ago, few imagined that Israel would bring home all the living hostages and still maintain a military presence in half of Gaza. Yet the next test may be even more challenging: convincing US President Donald Trump that Israel must be allowed freedom of action to confront Hamas when it inevitably violates the ceasefire, just as Israel operates freely against Hezbollah provocations in Lebanon.
When international media ignore Hezbollah’s daily violations of the ceasefire, preserving the illusion of calm along the northern border, Israel benefits. It can act quietly to neutralize threats without global outrage. In Gaza, the opposite may be true. Every Israeli response to Hamas will be broadcast worldwide, stripped of context, and framed as an unprovoked attack that “threatens peace.”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu must persuade President Trump, his advisers, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, and the US military team monitoring the ceasefire that Hamas’s violations cannot be ignored “for the greater good” of advancing to Phase Two. Such wishful thinking led directly to the October 7 disaster. Israel’s enemies always interpret restraint as weakness and hesitation as opportunity.
Facing a harsh reality
As Matthew Levitt, writing in Foreign Affairs, opined: “If past is precedent, Hamas will fight tooth and nail to preserve its political and military standing and its commitment to violently oppose prospects for peace. This is not the first time Hamas has had its back to the wall and had to engage in a strategic reassessment, finding a way to navigate international pressure while preserving its commitment to using violence to undermine its Palestinian rivals and, ultimately, destroy Israel.”
As the joy of seeing hostages return fades, Israel faces a harsh reality. Many of the dead may never be recovered, and the pressure to compromise in Phase Two will be intense. The key question is whether President Trump will press Turkey, Qatar, and Egypt to act against Hamas when it breaks the deal or whether Israel will again face global and American demands for restraint in the name of progress.
On Tuesday, President Trump declared, “Phase Two begins right NOW!!!” even as Hamas delays the return of hostage remains. Encouragingly, he added later: “If they don’t disarm, we will disarm them. And it will happen quickly and perhaps violently.”
Turkey and the Arab states
Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Hamas’s longtime patron, is already condemning Israel as “genocidal” while urging the US, EU, and Gulf states to “swiftly” fund Gaza’s reconstruction. Trump calls Erdogan “a good friend,” and the Turkish leader will no doubt lobby on Hamas’s behalf despite its executions of rival Palestinians and open violations of the deal. When Erdogan demands a “Palestinian state,” he envisions one ruled by the Muslim Brotherhood, committed to wiping out the Jewish state, not a peaceful neighbor to Israel.
As The Wall Street Journal asked: “Will the Arab states disarm Hamas? Blow up its tunnels? Risk their soldiers’ lives to keep Hamas down? If not, count on them to protest when Israel does it for them.” Israel will depend on Trump’s “full backing,” as promised. It bears repeating: Hamas has not agreed to disarm. It accepted only one of the 20 points in Trump’s plan.
Pressure to rebuild Gaza will mount quickly. The UN, EU, and Arab states will accuse Netanyahu of stalling for political reasons, even if Hamas openly violates the ceasefire. But rebuilding before the terror group is disarmed or before a credible security force is established would hand Gaza back to the same ruthless rulers. Hamas will stockpile weapons in the tunnels, eliminate its rivals, and prepare for the next round, as it has done before and vowed to do again.
Freedom of action
Jerusalem must therefore convince President Trump that just as it has freedom of action in Lebanon to strike Hezbollah anywhere it reconstitutes, it must have similar leeway in Gaza, or Hamas will reemerge, strengthened by the release of hardened terrorists in the hostage exchange. Among them could be the next Sinwar, who himself was freed in the 2011 Gilad Schalit deal. There likely would not have been an October 7 massacre of such scale had Israel learned that lesson earlier.
October 7 proved that containment and complacency are not strategies but dangerous delusions. When Hamas provokes and Israel responds, the familiar chorus of Europeans, Turks, and American leftists will cry “war crimes.” The test will be whether the Trump administration ignores their crocodile tears and continues to stand by Israel while urging Arab and Muslim states to act in their own interests: Normalize ties with Israel and deny Hamas a veto over their future.
The writer is the director of MEPIN, the Middle East Political Information Network, and senior security editor of The Jerusalem Report. He regularly briefs members of the US Congress and their foreign policy teams.