This week, Hamas informed Egyptian and Qatari mediators that it accepted the deal placed before it on Sunday. The terms call for a 60-day truce, the release of 10 living Israeli hostages and the bodies of slain captives, and in return, the freeing of 150 Palestinian prisoners. Further hostage releases would follow in a second phase, with negotiations on a permanent end to the war taking place during the truce.
This is by no means the all-for-everything deal most Israelis and Gazans prefer, but it is something. Moreover, despite the infuriating phases approach, which is something Israel has mostly insisted on, the intention is to end the war at the end of the second phase, with the implication that what’s left of Hamas may remain in power over the smoldering ruins of what remains of Gaza.
This is not the quick all-for-everything deal most Israelis want, nor does it guarantee immediately removing Hamas, which most Israelis also want, in somewhat contradictory fashion. But it offers a better way to get rid of Hamas than another year or two of fighting.
Israel should accept it, regardless of the consequences to Benjamin Netanyahu’s benighted coalition. Israel’s opposition will give him a parliamentary umbrella anyhow, and elections will follow next year, as they must by law. Those elections will be a referendum on the entire calamitous governance in Israel of the past several years.
Hamas has retreated from the sweeping demands that torpedoed talks last month, when it insisted on a permanent ceasefire upfront and mass prisoner releases. It is now under immense pressure from Israel’s threat to move on Gaza City, from Arab mediators, and –most significantly – from the Arab League, which for the first time has called on Hamas to disarm and disband.
Israel should respond in kind. It should take this deal seriously, in good faith, and not squander the opportunity by resuming the war once the truce begins (as it did in February). The first priority must be to bring home every last hostage. If Hamas later balks, that will be one thing. But if not, then the deal must be completed.
If Netanyahu refuses, Trump should force the issue. Israel cannot press on without the US. And the US should not back a war strategy aimed at preserving Netanyahu’s coalition at massive cost to lives and treasure.
The alternative, pressed forward by Netanyahu’s cabinet over the objections of Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir is to push into Gaza City in a bid to eradicate Hamas militarily. The generals know this would be a calamity: Hamas has had months to booby-trap what remains of the city and prepare for an insurgency in which children could be turned into fighters. Israelis know it too; more than 70% of the public opposes extending the war.
The Gaza City offensive is not strategy but a trap – one Hamas laid on October 7, 2023, when it murdered 1,200 Israelis in full knowledge that Israel’s fury would drive it into the impossible. Either that, or it is a bluff, aimed at achieving just what has happened. Does this path leave what’s left of Hamas (not much) still in charge of the smoldering ruins of the Gaza Strip? Yes, and getting rid of the group entirely is still a goal – but there is a better way.
Hamas cannot be left to govern a Palestinian state
Despite Israel’s lack of strategic foresight, the world has belatedly coalesced around a simple truth: Hamas must go. Two weeks ago in New York, the Arab League, joined by the European Union and dozens of states, called for Hamas to disarm and for the Palestinian Authority to retake control of Gaza with international backing, possibly a UN stabilization force. That 22 Arab states–including Qatar, Hamas’s longtime patron–signed on is an earthquake in regional diplomacy.
France and Britain, meanwhile, are preparing to recognize a Palestinian state at the UN General Assembly in September, but they too are calling for Hamas to be gone and the PA to be allowed to resume power in Gaza. The US, of course, wishes for the same. This is the true novelty of the moment. Just two years ago, the world tolerated Hamas as an unpleasant but inevitable player. Today, the regional and global consensus is that jihadist mafias cannot be the custodians of Palestinian lives.
Israel should harness this moment rather than undermining it. The path forward is this: Secure the hostages through the current deal; condition Gaza’s reconstruction on Hamas disarming; if Hamas refuses, allow Palestinians temporary refuge in Egypt with binding guarantees of return once Hamas is gone. Cairo would require compensation, but the arrangement would make it unmistakable where the real obstacle lies.
The Arab League must continue to press Hamas to accept its own demand for disarmament. Arab states, especially Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, should prepare to lead reconstruction, with the Palestinian Authority restored to Gaza and reformed with international help.
The United States should back this with leverage on Israel, whose government must stop pretending that eternal war is a strategy – or that the PA is as hostile as Hamas (which is absurd).
This time, there is reason to believe it can work. Netanyahu’s call-ups are unpopular. The Gaza City offensive is opposed by the military and despised by most Israelis. Hamas itself is bending under unprecedented pressure, and the Arab world is no longer hedging but demanding it disarm.
Israel’s leadership has behaved recklessly. Yet despair is not warranted. Most of the world, despite the uproar against Israel, knows Hamas must go. If Israel accepts the deal and if the Arab League holds firm, Gaza could yet emerge from this nightmare with the outlines of a real future.
The trap of endless war is right in front of us. But so too is the exit. I don’t rule out that Netanyahu will take this wiser path. But he will if Trump shows him the way. The absurdity of this is clear – but He works in strange ways.
The writer is a former chief editor of the Associated Press in Europe, Africa, and the Middle East; ex-chairman of the Foreign Press Association in Jerusalem; and author of two books about Israel. Follow his newsletter “Ask Questions Later.” It can be found at danperry.substack.com