In recent years, Azerbaijan has been undergoing a significant geopolitical transformation – one that is redefining its traditional relationships with regional powerhouses Russia and Iran.
Once perceived as a cautious actor maintaining a delicate balance among larger neighbors, Azerbaijan is now exhibiting a more assertive and sovereign-driven foreign policy.
This shift is not only challenging long-standing dynamics in the South Caucasus, but also positioning Azerbaijan as a proactive regional player with increasing strategic relevance.
Azerbaijan’s pushback is rooted in years of accumulated tensions and growing disillusionment with both Russia and Iran.
Azerbaijan's emergence as a stronger state
After the Second Karabakh War in 2020, Azerbaijan emerged as a militarily strengthened and diplomatically more confident state.
However, rather than fully supporting the post-conflict stabilization process, Russia has often appeared to act as a patron of Armenian interests – especially through its peacekeeping mission in the former conflict zones. Baku has frequently accused Moscow of turning a blind eye to Armenian provocations and undermining Azerbaijan’s sovereignty under the guise of maintaining stability.
Iran, meanwhile, has increasingly aligned itself with Armenia, both politically and militarily. Tehran’s rhetoric about preserving regional balance often masks its broader concerns about Azerbaijan’s growing ties with Israel and the West. Iran’s military exercises near the Azerbaijani border, along with inflammatory public statements and attempts to sow unrest among Azerbaijan’s Shia population, have led to a sharp deterioration in bilateral relations.
In response, Azerbaijan has pursued a dual strategy: strategic defiance and diplomatic diversification. It has bolstered military ties with Turkey and Israel, conducted high-profile joint drills, and accelerated its integration into regional platforms like the Organization of Turkic States. In essence, Baku is drawing new redlines – not just for its own security, but for regional power projection as well.
Azerbaijan’s redefined regional role is also grounded in its growing importance as an energy and logistics hub. The country is a key supplier of natural gas to Europe via the Southern Gas Corridor, a project that has gained critical relevance amid Europe’s efforts to reduce dependence on Russian energy. Azerbaijan’s commitment to expanding energy exports has turned it into a strategic ally for the European Union and beyond.
Furthermore, Azerbaijan is spearheading new transportation routes that bypass both Russia and Iran, particularly the Zangezur corridor and various east-west and north-south trade corridors. These projects are reshaping trade dynamics across Eurasia and enhancing Azerbaijan’s soft power among Turkic and Central Asian nations.
Baku’s cultural diplomacy and international outreach – including hosting global events and championing interfaith dialogue – also reflect its broader ambition to serve as a bridge between East and West, rather than a buffer between rival powers.
Azerbaijan's evolving foreign policy
Unlike smaller states that become captive to great power rivalries, Azerbaijan is choosing to actively shape its strategic environment. Its foreign policy today is increasingly defined by independence, multi-vector diplomacy, and calculated alignment, rather than blind allegiance.
While tensions with Russia and Iran may raise concerns about escalation, Azerbaijan appears committed to managing those risks through controlled assertiveness and international partnerships. Its close relations with Turkey, Israel, the EU, and rising cooperation with the United States serve as counterweights to Russian and Iranian pressure.
Importantly, Azerbaijan is not aiming to isolate or antagonize its neighbors but instead is asserting its sovereignty and regional agency. By standing firm in the face of coercion, Baku is sending a message – not only to Moscow and Tehran but to the broader international community – that small and medium powers can push back when their core interests are challenged.
Azerbaijan’s evolving foreign policy marks a departure from the traditional model of regional dependence. The country is no longer content with being seen as a passive player or an energy transit zone; instead, it is leveraging its geopolitical position, economic assets, and diplomatic clout to emerge as a strategic pivot in Eurasia.
In doing so, Azerbaijan is helping to rewrite the geopolitical script of the South Caucasus – one that is more multipolar, sovereign-centered, and resistant to external domination.
Whether this transformation will lead to sustainable peace and balance in the region depends not only on Azerbaijan’s resilience but also on the willingness of other actors to recognize and respect the new reality.
The writer is a prominent Middle East scholar and commentator.