The United States's attack on Iran may not be kinetic, but take the form of a blockade, leading Iran expert and senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), Danny Citrinowicz, told 103FM in a Sunday interview.
The expert's comments come after US President Donald Trump confirmed last week that America had "a lot of ships heading towards Iran," but that he hoped the US didn't have to use them. "We have an armada heading their way. They know what we want," Trump said before leaving the World Economic Forum in Davos.
"The American presence in the Gulf region allows for operational flexibility that does not necessarily mean there will be a kinetic attack, but may also move toward imposing a blockade on Iran," Citrinowicz said, adding that Israel must take into account that "all options are on the table.”
Israel has given the US the lead on striking Iran, as it is "preferable for the United States to do the job,” though it is still unclear what the US's "strategic objective" is, according to Citrinowicz, as there are "daily contradictions in Trump’s tweets."
In a separate Sunday interview with 103FM, former national security adviser Dr. Eyal Hulata echoed the sentiment, explaining that "despite the recent buildup of American forces in the region, the current situation does not point to an imminent large-scale war."
"It is possible that as a result of the pressure, [the US] will succeed in getting the Iranian leader to agree to their terms and come to the negotiating table," Hulata said, believing that Trump is not interested in a broader attack on Iran.
Iranian response targeting Israel 'not inevitable'
At the same time, both Citrinowicz and Hulata believe that an Iranian response targeting Israel is not inevitable should the US attack the regime.
"If [Iran] believes that the American strike is purely symbolic," it may not target Israel in response, Citrinowicz explained. However, if Iran assumes that the US is striking to take down the regime, it may target Israel in an attempt to "end the attack."
Hulata added that Iran would be mistaken to attack Israel, as Israel would respond in force, targeting "expensive and extremely important infrastructure" to both the regime and the Iranian economy. Even so, he argued that Israel should not intervene unless it has no other choice, as it "does not have the ability to reignite unrest through a strike of its own."
"There is a difference between Israel and the United States," he noted, "but Iran needs to assume that Israel would use its power with fewer restraints."
According to Hulata, Iran is interested in dragging out the situation and would consider it a success if the US withdraws its forces without attacking.
Regarding Israel's preparation for a possible attack, Hulata said that the Israeli public should trust the Home Front Command "despite all the noise."
“I estimate that the Home Front Command and the security establishment will not take unnecessary risks. It will be important to make sure everyone is within a protected range and that we are prepared.”