While Israel’s initial strike on Iran was a remarkable display of military and intelligence capability, Iran’s nuclear program cannot be completely dismantled without the United States taking a more active role, Former Mossad Official Sima Shine believes.
Shine admitted she was surprised by the precision and coordination between the Mossad and the IDF during the opening salvo of Operation Rising Lion, calling it a stunning demonstration of military precision and intelligence reach. Still, she stressed, without American involvement, Israel cannot finish the job.
Shine, who once headed the Mossad’s Research Division and now directs the Iran and Shiite Axis research program at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), shared her analysis in a special briefing held the day after ‘Operation Rising Lion’ – Israel’s sweeping surprise attack on June 13 which targeted over 100 key military and nuclear sites in Iran.
The Iranian response is already underway, but it is far from over – according to Shine, “everything in their capacity will be used.” This means Israelis must remain vigilant of the instructions from the Home Front Command.
Shine predicts that the response very well may be asymmetrical – it could involve sleeper terror cells abroad, in Europe, or elsewhere that Iran has tried to use in the past. Part of Iran’s retaliation could involve escalating diplomatically by leaving the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and expelling inspectors.
Since the strike, Iran has launched waves of drone and missile attacks daily, targeting civilian areas, with extensive damage in Tel Aviv and Haifa. The Israeli government has declared a national state of emergency – military and civilian defense systems remain on high alert.
Shine predicted a fierce retaliatory response from Iran, which could potentially drag the region into open conflict.
She also predicted that the Houthis would continue with their sporadic attacks, even though there have been strange announcements from Iran’s proxy forces that share borders with Israel. Hezbollah made an unusual announcement: “Hezbollah will not initiate its own attack on Israel in retaliation for Israel’s strikes,”
Iran’s proxies in Iraq face a difficult situation, Shine also mentioned, as the Iraqi Prime Minister has emphasized that they do not want to be involved in this war either. This development with Hezbollah and pro-Iranian militias in Syria marks a sharp contrast to last summer, when Iran’s ‘ring of fire’ was ablaze.
Will the US join the Israeli attacks?
“Israel cannot probably take out completely the nuclear project on its own without the American participation,” she said. “If the US will not be a part of the war, I assume that Iran will have some parts of the nuclear project remain from my point of view, this is a huge point of question mark to what will happen after”
Shine noted that several of Iran’s smaller nuclear facilities are buried deep underground, making them difficult to destroy. “This does not mean that Israel will not attack it and will not damage them,” she added. “In order to make sure this program cannot be rebuilt, in the same places where it is now, there is a need for American involvement.”
As for the international front and surrounding G7 and Western nations, she underscored their rare alignment: “no question of daylight between us and the Europeans and the Americans about the evilness of the regime and the destabilizing role of Iran in the Middle East”
For now, the Israelis have the momentum and are pressing full speed ahead. The question of whether the US ultimately chooses to join the offensive front or to remain a supportive character could be the difference between disruption and total dismantlement. The question now is whether the current momentum is enough to completely dismantle Iran’s nuclear program or, as Shine warns, will the most dangerous pieces of the program remain just out of reach?
Operation Rising Lion was just the beginning
According to Shine, Operation Rising Lion was just an opening act; it marked the beginning of something larger, and the operation is far from done. From the day after Israel’s initial strike, Shine explained exactly what implications were to follow, as she said the term ‘operation’ does not fully encapsulate the current situation; she thinks the word war is more accurate.
She called it a war because “an operation has a beginning and an end,” which is defined, but Israel planned to strike a wide array of targets over a longer period of time.
Shine predicted a pattern of escalation continuing from both sides because “once Iran retaliates, Israel will again retaliate.”
Israel’s strike on June 13 consisted of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, ballistic missile and air defense installations, and military and IRGC headquarters.
On June 14-15, Israel expanded their target list to include Iranian energy infrastructure such as oil and gas installations. On the third consecutive day of strikes, targets included Tehran, along with increasing damage to surrounding areas - planned diplomatic talks in Oman collapsed amid the escalation on June 15.
By June 16-17, the IDF had advanced its list of targets to include Iran’s Foreign Ministry and the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) headquarters in Tehran, which was hit in multiple strikes, causing violent explosions during a live broadcast.
Shine added that the most important factors that determine the Iranian pattern of play in this war is “ how the population is behaving and how much risk is there for the stability of the regime.”
International reactions
The international community has had mixed responses to the Israeli operation – Shine sees Iran as part of a wider bloc of nations, including Russia and China, that want to counter US interests.
“It is no question that Iran is part of the war in Ukraine,” she also added that there is a chain of buying and supplying UAVs from Iran and Russia that have enabled the continuation of this war in Ukraine. China is also connected to Iran and has been supplying Iran with fuel for missiles over the last several months.
It is clear that these countries are all working together against American interests but as Shine put it: “these states have mutual interest but not all their interests are mutual.”
The US initially distanced itself from the initial operation on June 13 – Secretary of State Marco Rubio stressed that, “Israel acted independently…we’re not involved.”
Shine saw this statement from Rubio as one that simply protected US interests in the region: “It was important for the US to make a statement distancing themselves to try to ensure that Iranians do not touch US interests in the region.”
However, on June 17, Trump called for Iran’s “unconditional surrender.”
Shine’s view is that while the Mossad and the IDF demonstrated excellent operational readiness on June 13th, the complete destruction of Iran’s nuclear project is beyond Israel’s reach without US involvement.