Turkey may view Israel as its regional rival after strikes in Syria - analysis

Turkey’s ruling AKP party has been hostile to Israel for many years. It ties its hostility to its support for Palestinians. However, Turkey’s policy affects more than just the Palestinians; it has been increasingly sympathetic to Hamas over the years.

From Turkey’s point of view, it benefits from supporting Hamas because the Palestinians widely support Hamas. Ankara’s link to Hamas runs even deeper, and likely has roots in the Muslim Brotherhood ideology, which influences both Hamas and the AKP.

This contradiction would not be the first for the US, however. In the past, the US had to balance Saudi Arabia and Israel as allies in the 1980s and 1990s, even when the two were at odds with each other.

A new article at Al Jazeera notes: “Ankara views Israeli attempts to undermine the Syrian transition as having direct repercussions for its national security.” This was written after a recent Israeli airstrike in Syria, which was intended to deter Turkey from expanding its role in Syria. Israel has shifted its priorities in Syria; it has gone from targeting Iranian entrenchment before the fall of the Assad regime to being wary of Turkish entrenchment.

“Therefore, Turkey is no longer seeing Israel solely through the prism of the Palestinian question,” the article notes. “Rather, it increasingly sees it as a national security challenge, with Israeli regional revisionism threatening its interests.”

Let’s recall how this development occurred. Turkey and Israel have both been led by right-wing and religious parties over the past two decades. In a sense, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have had similar careers. Both have harnessed their countries' politics and sought to build right-wing, religious coalitions to run countries previously led by more secular, center-left nationalist parties.

This trajectory has become increasingly common all over the world. However, in the specific case of Turkey and Israel, it appears to have led to clashes instead of partnership.

In the past, it was Turkey that appeared to have the upper hand in the region. Turkey’s population is eight times the size of Israel, and its territory is 36 times larger.

Despite this, Israel’s economic power is quickly catching up to Turkey. In fact, Israeli defense companies are outpacing Turkish defense companies. Population and geography matter, but Israel has a more dynamic economy.

In the wake of the Abraham Accords and other developments, Israel may be seen as a rival on various fronts with Turkey.

Let’s go back a few years and recall that Turkey and Israel were once friends from the 1950s to the 1990s. However, the rise of the AKP and Israel’s continuing conflicts led to a rapid decline in relations after 2009. The Israeli raid on the Mavi Marmara, which resulted in the deaths of 10 Turkish citizens, harmed the already fraying ties.

There were some attempts to reconcile the relationship between the two countries. President Isaac Herzog even went to Turkey in 2022, but the attempts at reconciliation didn’t hold. October 7 opened up even more anti-Israel rhetoric from Turkey.

The real story may, in fact, be found in Ankara’s foreign policy and Israel’s own paradigm shift. Turkey once had “zero problems” with its neighbors. The Syrian civil war, however, led to Turkey invading parts of northern Syria. By 2019, Turkey was having a new crisis every week.

Turkey hosted Hamas leaders and offered them the red carpet. This, in turn, threatened Greece and Cyprus, which eventually pushed Israel, Greece, and Cyprus closer together.

Over the years, Turkey became increasingly belligerent in the eastern Mediterranean. Turkey intervened in Libya. It also threatened Saudi Arabia and the UAE. It backed Qatar in the 2017 Gulf crisis. It backed the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, and was outraged by the death of former Egyptian leader Mohammed Morsi in custody.

In 2022, the world saw a decidedly different Turkey. It moved to reconcile with Saudi Arabia and Egypt, and sought to reduce tensions in Libya. Although Turkey was still mobilizing for a larger role in places like Africa, it also had to balance its ties with Ukraine and Russia.

In Syria, Turkey believed the Assad regime would remain. It was handed a new chance in Syria when the Assad regime fell in December 2024.

Turkey was used to playing a major role on several continents. It was a member of NATO and had a foothold in Europe. It once even considered joining the EU. Years ago, I interviewed Yasar Yakis, who had been the chairman of the EU Committee of the Turkish parliament. Turkey shifted its view from a European concept to one that sought to play a larger role in the Islamic world.

As such, one can see in Ankara’s drive for power as a desire to play a role in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. As a country that inherits some of the policies of the Ottoman Empire and the Caliphate that once sat in Istanbul, Turkey naturally has a global view.

Israel’s foreign policy has not always been a global one. Once upon a time, in the 1950s and 1960s, it had a periphery doctrine when it was surrounded by hostile Arab countries. Later, it was able to broker peace with Egypt and Jordan. With the Trump administration’s help, Israel also made peace with the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco.

Although Israel has friends in Asia and Europe, it has had to juggle its policies so it focuses only on a few issues at a time. This precarious balance can also be seen in Israel’s struggle to maintain well-staffed embassies abroad, even in the countries it has ties with.

The post-October 7 doctrine has changed Israel’s approach. Now, Israel believes it will have a long-term role in running half of Gaza, as well as a swath of southern Lebanon and a buffer zone in Syria.

The post-October 7 doctrine has changed Israel’s approach. Now, Israel believes it will have a long-term role in running half of Gaza, as well as a swath of southern Lebanon and a buffer zone in Syria.

The result? Going forward, Turkey and Israel will eye each other across the table, seeing each other more as equals. Gone is the past where Ankara appeared to have an Ottoman-like grip over the Mediterranean and Middle East. Now, it has a rival.