In the Gulf, the talk is about what comes next after the recent US strikes on Iran. This is because the US-Iran clashes have often resulted in Iran carrying out attacks on the Gulf states.
US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that Iran was taking too long to agree to a deal and it would have to “pay the price.” This comes after two months of talks towards a deal in the wake of a ceasefire in April. The ceasefire has not been a real one, as there have been continuous clashes every week in the region.
“Iran is all talk and no action,” Trump wrote on social media. “They’ve taken too long to negotiate a deal that would have been great for them, now they will have to pay the price!!!”
This comes after Iran was accused of downing a US Apache helicopter, and the US carried out strikes on Iran. Trump has threatened Iran before; however, it is clear that the recent strikes were stronger than before.
This also followed an exchange of strikes between Israel and Iran this week. Iran is trying to project confidence. It has not seemed willing to budge on various issues in talks about a deal. On the contrary, Iran appears willing to lash out in the region.
Some compare Tehran's ideals to Nasserism
However, in some parts of the region, there is a sense that Iran is not as powerful as it pretends to be. Abdulrahman al-Rashed, a Saudi journalist and intellectual, as well as being former general manager of Al Arabiya news channel and former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat, wrote about “what remains of Tehran’s empire.”
In his article, which was published in Arab News and Asharq Al-Awsat, he noted, “Today, Iran clings to one thing: preserving some of its geopolitical gains in the Arab region. Will it succeed in negotiations after failing in war?
Iran seeks to control Iraq, preserve Hezbollah, Houthis, after Assad fell in Syria, journalist says
“It seeks to control Iraq and preserve Hezbollah in Lebanon, having lost Syria and being on the verge of losing the Houthis in Yemen. It hopes that negotiations with the US administration will help preserve its extensive realm as much as possible.”
Rashed compared Iran’s attempt to impose its hegemony on the region to other countries that have tried to do the same in the past. For instance, he references the Egyptian leadership of Gamal Abdel Nasser in the 1950s and 1960s and his attempt to export “Nasserism” across the region.
Nasser has a major influence on the crisis in Jordan, Lebanon, and Iraq, as well as influence in Syria and Yemen. As such, Nasserism and the revolutions and coups it inspired had a huge influence on the Middle East.
“Nasserism’s intellectual and military reach swept through various parts of the region, but it failed to plant proxies, establish governments, and control vast geopolitical areas. Cairo’s influence over Syria, in the name of unity, lasted only three years before it was ousted in the first coup.
“Iranian influence, however, has been extensive, long-lasting, and backed by military force, unparalleled in the region since the decline of the British Empire’s presence,” Rashed wrote. “Tehran advanced far in its expansion, reaching the borders of Turkey and the waters of the Mediterranean Sea and the Red Sea.”
But Iran has suffered losses and setbacks in recent years.
“The regime weaves around itself an image of an invincible regional power, hoping to achieve through negotiations what it failed to achieve through military force,” he wrote. “Its endurance of losses, its targeting of less-defended areas, and its recent attack on Israel are all theatrical displays.
“What worries everyone is that the US administration might fall into Iran’s trap and grant it more than $24 billion in the negotiations and lift the blockade, in addition to overlooking its ballistic missile system and regional proxies, which would mean that future confrontations with Iran would be almost certain.”
His article is one of several hints in Gulf media that there is an expectation Iran may be on the defensive soon. Arab News also has a piece asking, “How long can Iran’s regime fight on?”
The big question in the Gulf is whether Iran will continue to carry out missile and drone attacks on Gulf countries. This includes threats to all the countries, from Kuwait to Bahrain, to the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Oman.
Iran has constantly targeted these countries when tensions grow. Iran also feels impunity in doing so. It continues to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, creating an economic crisis. However, this has led countries in the region to quickly innovate to move and shift trade in ways that avoid the Strait. This will have long-lasting ramifications.
Countries will diversify trade and invest in new infrastructure and defenses. This is already happening in many countries, and countries that badly need investment, such as Syria, will benefit immensely.
This is likely why, when looking at the big picture, authors in Gulf media see a potential silver lining.