Turkey and Israel appear to be heading towards increasing chances of a confrontation in the region. This confrontation has so far played itself out primarily as a war of words.
For instance, Turkey’s interior minister, Mustafa Ciftci, said he hoped to see the “liberation” of Jerusalem. He compared this to recent conflicts between Armenia and Azerbaijan and in Syria, where areas had been liberated from adversaries.
On June 7, Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz wrote on social media, “To the Turkish Interior Minister who dreams of administering Jerusalem and hurls threats, I say this: Jerusalem is not Constantinople, and the State of Israel is not a crumbling Crusader Empire. Israel is a strong and resolute state that has proven its capacity to defend itself against any threat.”
Katz went on to note to the Turkish official that “Jerusalem has been the capital of the Jewish people for 3,000 years and will remain Israel’s capital forever. You and the Ottoman Empire that Erdogan dreams of, on the other hand, have collapsed and will never return.
Ankara has talked about liberating Jerusalem in the past. It has been a theme of some rhetoric going back years, and it has become more common under the multi-decade rule of the AKP in Turkey.
Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan escalates rhetoric toward Israel and the broader Mediterranean
The AKP party has roots in the Muslim Brotherhood and political Islam. It is the more conservative and right-wing of the parties in Turkey, compared to the more secular and nationalist Republican People’s Party (CHP), which once dominated Turkish politics.
“Just as we witnessed the liberation of Damascus, Aleppo, and Karabakh, God willing, one day we will also witness the liberation of Jerusalem,” Ciftci said in a speech at an AKP Party conference in the city of Corum.
Now, Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan has appeared to increase the rhetoric by saying on Wednesday that Israel’s attacks on Syria and Lebanon had reached a point where they also threaten Turkey, Reuters noted. Turkey’s president condemns Israeli aggression in the region.
Turkey has been increasingly concerned that Israel is becoming a regional superpower. From Turkey’s point of view, the multi-front war after October 7 has led Israel to a much stronger position in the region. This has led to Israeli strikes on the Houthis in Yemen, on Iran, and also Israeli operations in Lebanon and Syria.
What’s interesting about Turkey’s view is that it is partly projecting its own policy on Israel.
Turkey, under the AKP, shifted after 2015 to become much more aggressive and seek out military adventures. It sent forces into Syria. It mobilized Syrian rebel groups to fight against the Kurdish YPG in Afrin in 2018. It also backed Azerbaijan’s conflict with Armenia and Azerbaijan taking over the disputed area of Karabakh.
Ankara came close to clashes with Greece and also sent forces to Libya. In essence, Turkey’s policy from 2015 to 2023 was a series of movements to increase Ankara’s influence across the region and around the world.
It’s logical in any system of states that when there are two strong countries in a region, they may gravitate towards a clash. This is what happened after World War II, when the US-Soviet alliance against the Nazis turned into the Cold War. It is also how the balance of power in Europe functioned for hundreds of years.
For instance, when any one country would grow too powerful, others would often clash with it. This happened during the Napoleonic Wars and also in the lead-up to the World Wars. As such, the Middle East is merely replicating a natural phenomenon.
Recent rhetoric has increased tensions and concern in both Jerusalem and Ankara
Turkey and Israel are among the strongest military powers in the region. Both are allies of the US. Both have strong defense industrial complexes. They also have very different ideologies: one is led by a right-leaning Jewish party with increasingly religious-nationalist elements, and the other is led by a conservative, populist, Islamic-leaning party.
“The attacks by (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu and his network of murder on Lebanon and Syria have brought the issue to a point where it also threatens Turkey,” Erdogan told lawmakers from his ruling AK Party in parliament, Reuters said this week.
He also accused Israel of destabilizing African countries, a reference to Israel’s recognition of Somaliland. Turkey has forces in Somalia and has backed Somalia for years.
Erdogan also accused Israel of creating “discord” in the Eastern Mediterranean and referenced Israel-Cyprus ties. Turkey backs Northern Cyprus, which it recognizes as a country. Turkey invaded Cyprus in the 1970s to support Turkish Cypriots. This led to the division of the island.
Israel has increasingly warm ties with Cyprus and Greece. This challenges Turkey’s role in the Eastern Mediterranean.
“These small entities, whose ambitions far exceed their size, have boarded Israel’s boat of mischief, taken on the role of Zionist subcontractors, and are pursuing some pipe dreams in the Eastern Mediterranean,” Erdogan said. “Nobody should chase adventures...”
“I want everyone to know that if the rights of Turkey and Turkish Cypriots are violated in the Eastern Mediterranean, our response will be very clear and very strong,” he stated.
The comments in recent days have raised eyebrows in Jerusalem and Ankara.
It is clear that Turkey and Israel, under their current leadership, will have rhetorical clashes. The question is whether this may one day lead to larger tensions in Syria or the Eastern Mediterranean.