ByAMICHAI STEIN
Updated:

Two weeks into the war, and despite more than 2,000 missiles and drones launched by Iran toward Gulf states, a retaliatory strike against Iran still does not appear to be on the horizon.

According to sources from Gulf states who spoke with The Jerusalem Post, one of the reasons they have not launched an attack is their concern about “the day after.”

“There are many unanswered questions about how the war will end,” a Gulf official told the Post. “It’s possible that in the end, the regime will not fall, that [US President Donald] Trump will decide the event is over, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-based regime will remain in place. In that case, Gulf states would have to continue dealing with Tehran and maintain some form of relationship with it.”

Another reason Gulf states are reluctant to attack Iran is the fear of a significant escalation in Iranian strikes, including an expansion of the list of targets that might be hit with missiles and drones.

“It’s not as if Iran isn’t already firing or hitting civilian targets,” another Gulf source said. “But it could be much worse. We know Iran still has capabilities it has not yet used, and that concern is always there.”

Smoke rises in the Fujairah oil industry zone following a fire caused by debris after interception of a drone by air defenses, according to the Fujairah media office, amid the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, in Fujairah, United Arab Emirates, March 3, 2026.
Smoke rises in the Fujairah oil industry zone following a fire caused by debris after interception of a drone by air defenses, according to the Fujairah media office, amid the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, in Fujairah, United Arab Emirates, March 3, 2026. (credit: REUTERS/AMR ALFIKY)

Gulf states hesitate to strike Iran, fear escalation

Although all six Gulf countries have been attacked, looking at their positions reveals no clear consensus on how to respond to Iran.

Oman, for example, condemned the joint Israeli-American strike against Iran and also condemned attacks against countries in the region – without specifying who carried them out.

At the other end of the spectrum is the United Arab Emirates. UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed said Iran is an enemy, and Anwar Gargash, one of his senior advisers, wrote on X/Twitter that the Iranian assault was a terrorist attack.

The difficulty in reaching a consensus is another reason why a strike is unlikely in the near future, according to officials from Gulf states.

“There are so many opinions and so many different approaches to managing relations at this moment, and none of the countries wants to act alone,” one official told the Post.