Trump aims for Middle East recalibration with Syria, Saudi Arabia at the center - analysis

The back-to-back visits signal that Washington is deeply engaged in a major recalibration of its Middle East architecture – adding Syria and Saudi Arabia as key pillars alongside Israel, Jordan, and Egypt.

Sharaa’s ascent is nothing short of remarkable. Once a jihadist affiliated with al-Qaeda, he now sits in the presidential palace in Damascus. Instead of fighting American servicemen, he was seen playing basketball with them in a clip that went viral on Sunday.

The US decision to lift sanctions on Syria and to invite Sharaa to Washington indicates that Damascus has been accepted – at least provisionally – into the new American-led regional equation.

For Trump, the attraction is clear. He can point to another apparent foreign-policy win: rehabilitating a onetime enemy, outmaneuvering Iran and Russia – Syria’s former overlords – and securing a new foothold in a country long synonymous with chaos.

For Sharaa, the calculus is equally simple. A photo-op in the Oval Office is the fastest way to signal that Syria is no longer an international pariah.

From Israel’s point of view, however, the development raises some significant questions.

Following the lightning fall of Bashar Assad in 2025, Israel moved swiftly to carve out a buffer zone along its border to prevent jihadists and Iranian proxies from moving closer and potentially staging an October 7 massacre-style attack against Israeli communities in the Golan Heights.

Now, Jerusalem is hedging its bets. If Sharaa proves to be a genuine reformer, Israel could conceivably sign a nonaggression pact with Syria and eventually withdraw its troops. But if his conversion is merely tactical – a bid for Western legitimacy and funding – then keeping forces in southern Syria remains an insurance policy against the next surprise.

The challenge is one of timing. Washington and Jerusalem are moving to different clocks. The US would like these changes to unfold quickly; Israel would prefer to watch them mature slowly. Trump may be eager to move from handshake to headline, but Israel will want to see whether the changes in Damascus are real or rhetorical – a process that could take years.

Meanwhile, Trump’s regional choreography continues. On November 18, he will host MBS, whose wish list includes a formal defense pact with Washington and the purchase of billions of dollars of advanced weaponry.

In return, Trump would like the Saudis to take the next step toward normalizing ties with Israel – a cornerstone of the broader peace framework he is trying to put together.

But for the Saudis, normalization is secondary. The main attraction is the defense pact. Preferably, they would like a formal treaty. But recognizing significant opposition in Congress because of their abysmal human-rights record, they would likely settle for something less formal that does not necessitate Congressional approval – something similar to the executive order Trump signed with Qatar in September after Israel’s attack on Hamas leaders in Doha.

That order, “Assuring the Security of the State of Qatar,” committed the US to guaranteeing Qatar’s territorial integrity against external attack. A parallel agreement for Saudi Arabia would not carry the weight of a treaty, but it would serve as a powerful deterrent to its enemies – and a signal of American commitment.

For Trump, getting the Saudis to normalize relations with Israel remains the crown jewel of his post-Gaza “grand peace” vision. But given the current mood in Saudi Arabia – where public opinion has been poisoned against Israel by the Gaza war and the drumbeat of anti-Israel coverage on Al Jazeera and elsewhere – such a step seems unlikely in the near term.

Still, even without normalization, MBS’s visit will almost certainly strengthen US-Saudi ties and reinforce Riyadh’s role as a central player in Trump’s new Middle East – a counterweight to Iran and a barrier against Chinese and Russian influence in the region.

What Washington is sketching now is not just a web of bilateral deals but a broader map – a political geography that stretches across the Middle East.

The goal appears to be transforming what was once Iran’s “Shi’ite Crescent” into a pro-Western arc running from the Gulf to the Mediterranean.

In its most ambitious form, that arc would begin in Saudi Arabia, pass through Jordan, include a newly realigned Syria under Sharaa, extend through Israel, and continue into Egypt – creating a nearly contiguous belt of states either friendly to Washington or at least not hostile to it.

Qatar complicates the picture. On paper, it fits the pattern: host to the largest US airbase in the region and bound by a new American security understanding. But in practice, Doha has long played its own duplicitous game – one foot in the Western camp, the other in the Islamist world.

In this evolving map, it would be Iran – not Israel – that finds itself boxed in. And this vision – call it the Trump Doctrine – owes much to the tectonic shifts unleashed by Israel’s actions after October 7.

With the first stage of the cease-fire ending – all live hostages released and all but four of the dead recovered – Kushner was discussing next steps in a process that, at least on paper, sees Hamas demilitarized and an international stabilization force deployed in Gaza.

And as all this unfolds, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is scheduled to meet French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris on Tuesday – in what seems like a bid by both men to remain relevant.

Macron’s recognition of a Palestinian state last summer was quickly overshadowed by Trump’s cease-fire plan, leaving both leaders watching from the sidelines – tiny dancers in a grand ballet whose every move is being choreographed by Trump.

Syrian Democratic Forces, the US-backed force in eastern Syria. This force was organized 10 years ago and defeated ISIS in Syria in 2019. The US appears to want to bring the new Syrian government into the coalition against ISIS. This could be shifting some US forces to Syrian government-controlled areas of Syria. The US has some forces in SDF-held areas in eastern Syria and in Tanf, a small desert garrison near the Jordanian border.