The emerging Trump administration’s 20-point plan for postwar Gaza is ambitious: disarm Hamas, deploy an international stabilization force, inject over $5 billion in investments, install temporary technocratic governance, and eventually transfer control to a “reformed” Palestinian Authority and cast Qatar as a key financier and political mediator.
On paper, it sounds pragmatic. In reality, it rests on a dangerous illusion that the Palestinian Authority can serve as a moderate counterweight to Hamas.
This assumption fundamentally misunderstands the deep, multi-dimensional strategic triangle between Qatar, the PA, and Hamas that has solidified over the past decade. Far from being a rival to Hamas, the PA has become another platform in Qatar’s sophisticated strategy for managing the long-term struggle against Israel. Handing Gaza to the PA will not dismantle Islamist infrastructure; it will merely provide that same ideology with institutional cover and dangerous international legitimacy.
The Qatar-PA financial and institutional embrace
Over the last 10 years, Qatar has poured more than $1.2 billion into the Palestinian Authority, its institutions, education, and health systems. This is not ordinary humanitarian aid. It has created near-total dependency: covering budget deficits, indirectly supporting “Pay for Slay” stipends to terrorists’ families, and funding Palestinian companies and civil society organizations.
Qatar’s flagship initiatives, such as the Al Fakhoora program and Education Above All foundation, have systematically invested in education and welfare infrastructure across the West Bank and Gaza. These create a stable “civilian envelope” that can seamlessly transition to Hamas control if the political winds shift. The money doesn’t build a moderate alternative; it builds resilience for the broader Islamist ecosystem.
The shared ideological DNA
At the heart of the Qatar-PA relationship lies a common ideological thread: the belief that the 1967 lines represent only a temporary stage toward “Greater Palestine.” This mirrors the classic Hudaybiyyah model, a tactical truce used to accumulate strength before resuming the struggle.
Qatari-funded textbooks in the PA, as well as curricula promoted in Qatar itself, consistently feature antisemitic content, erasure of Israel from maps, and the cultivation of jihadist narratives.
This educational infrastructure produces generations for whom Hamas is not an aberration but a legitimate and ideologically compatible partner. The PA leadership may speak in more polished diplomatic tones, but it operates within the same strategic worldview.
Media legitimacy and parallel governance
Al Jazeera and Qatar’s broader media empire play a crucial role. They portray both the PA and Qatar as “responsible mediators” while framing Hamas’s actions as legitimate “resistance.” This creates a sophisticated duality: the PA maintains a facade of governance (for example, limited roles in Rafah crossing or security coordination), while Qatar continues to nurture Hamas’s military and political capabilities.
The result is a perfectly designed division of labor. The PA provides institutional legitimacy and international respectability; Hamas supplies the “resistance” on the ground; and Qatar orchestrates the entire orchestra with money, media, and political cover.
Why Trump’s plan is vulnerable
The American plan assumes that a “reformed” PA, backed by Gulf money and international oversight, can replace Hamas as a pragmatic governing entity. But the structural reality points in the opposite direction.
The PA is not positioned to dismantle Hamas’s ideological and military infrastructure because it shares too much of the same foundational DNA and is deeply entangled with the very actor (Qatar) that sustains Hamas.
In certain scenarios, the extensive civilian, educational, and welfare infrastructure built with Qatari support could actually serve as a “silver platter” for a future Hamas takeover of PA institutions.
We have seen this movie before. The 2007 Hamas coup in Gaza was not an anomaly; it was a logical outcome of the ecosystem Qatar has patiently cultivated.
The strategic recommendation
Israel and the United States must not repeat the mistakes of the past by placing false hope in the PA as a moderate savior. Any viable plan for Gaza must include a genuine, long-term deradicalization program that confronts the ideological and educational roots of the conflict, rather than focusing solely on its military symptoms.
It is essential to break the PA’s dangerous financial and institutional dependency on Qatar. At the same time, new governance models should be developed in Gaza, genuinely technocratic and localized that are not subordinated to Ramallah’s failed structures.
Finally, robust international monitoring mechanisms are needed that can actually enforce demilitarization and prevent the reestablishment of terror infrastructures under new names.
The Trump plan’s focus on pragmatism and economic investment is understandable after years of failed idealism. But pragmatism without clear-eyed analysis of the Qatar-PA-Hamas axis is not realism; it is wishful thinking dressed in technocratic clothing.
In a region increasingly driven by performance legitimacy and survival pragmatism, repeating the same flawed assumptions about Palestinian partners risks not only failure but the entrenchment of a more sophisticated and internationally legitimized threat.
The lessons of the past decade are unambiguous: Qatar does not invest in moderation. It invests in strategic depth for the Islamist camp. Until policymakers internalize this structural reality, plans for Gaza will continue to collapse under the weight of illusions about Palestinian partners.
The road to a more stable Gaza does not run through Ramallah under Qatari patronage. It requires confronting the ideological and institutional ecosystem that has made Hamas and its enablers so resilient.■
Ariel Admoni is a researcher of Qatari policy at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security. Sagiv Steinberg is a Middle East geostrategic analyst and communications expert, formerly a senior editor in media organizations in Israel and internationally.