The coalition bloc lost two seats today due to the fall of the Religious Zionist Party, which no longer passes the electoral threshold, according to a Maariv poll published Friday.
The poll comes against the backdrop of preparations for the conquest of Gaza, and IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir’s reservations and ongoing protests and disruptions demanding the return of all hostages and an end to the war.
A party led by Gadi Eisenkot dropped by three seats, leaving it with six, the same number it had after the former chief of staff left the National Unity Party.
On the other hand, Likud gained two seats this week, as did a party led by Naftali Bennett after weeks of stagnation. Following these changes, Netanyahu’s coalition fell to just 48 seats, compared with 62 for the opposition parties led by Bennett, and another 10 seats for the Arab parties.
In response to the question: If in the Knesset elections two new parties were to run, one led by Naftali Bennett and one led by Gadi Eisenkot, with the other parties unchanged, who would you vote for?
Overall, the seat breakdown is as follows:
- Likud - 25 seats
- Bennett party - 24 seats
- Yisrael Beytenu - 10 seats
- The Democrats - 10 seats
- Shas - nine seats
- Yesh Atid - eight seats
- Otzma Yehudit - seven seats
- United Torah Judaism - seven seats
- Eisenkot party - six seats
- Ra'am - five seats
- Hadash-Ta'al - five seats
- Blue and White - four
- Religious Zionist Party - zero
- Balad - zero
Party led by Yossi Cohen may turn tide
The poll also showed that a party led by former Mossad chief Yossi Cohen is expected to win four seats, hovering at the threshold. Most of its votes would come from Likud and from the parties of Bennett and Eisenkot.
In this scenario, Netanyahu’s coalition would hold 47 seats, one fewer than without Cohen, while the opposition bloc without Cohen would have 59, with Cohen potentially serving as a kingmaker.
The Arab parties would still receive 10 seats in this scenario.
The poll further found that more than a third of Israelis (39%) supported a proposal by Nathan Eshel, Netanyahu's former chief of staff, to hold elections with two ballots, one for the prime minister and one for the Knesset.
By contrast, 27% opposed the idea, and about a third (34%) have no opinion.
The Maariv survey was carried out between Wednesday and Thursday, among 500 adult respondents, both Jews and Arabs. The maximum sampling error is +/-4.4%. The survey was conducted for Maariv by Lazar Research, headed by Dr. Menachem Lazar, in cooperation with the online respondent panel Panel4All.