Ahead of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s meeting this week at the White House with US President Donald Trump – and amid reports of significant progress in talks for a hostage deal and ending the war, as well as a potential expansion of the Abraham Accords – the coalition bloc strengthened this week by three seats to 51.
This is compared to 59 seats for the opposition bloc, led by Naftali Bennett, according to a Maariv poll conducted by Lazar Research, headed by Dr. Menachem Lazar, in collaboration with Panel4All.
Neither bloc includes the 10 seats of the two Arab parties, Ra’am and Hadash-Ta’al.
The survey, conducted from July 2-3, included 511 respondents from Israel’s adult population.
In response to the question, “If in the next Knesset elections a new party led by Naftali Bennett runs (with all other parties remaining the same), which party would you vote for?” the results were as follows: Likud – 27 seats (up from 25), Bennett – 24 (down from 25), the Democrats – 11 (unchanged), Yisrael Beytenu – 9 (unchanged), Shas – 9 (unchanged), Yesh Atid – 9 (up from 8), United Torah Judaism – 8 (up from 7), Otzma Yehudit – 7 (unchanged), Blue and White – 6 (down from 8), Ra’am – 5 (down from 6), and Hadash-Ta’al – 5 (unchanged).
However, the new variable thrown into this political storm is Gadi Eisenkot’s departure from the National Unity Party, which immediately reverted to its old name, Blue and White. Currently, it is expected that Eisenkot will join an existing party and not run independently, though the poll suggests he is worth six seats on his own.
In any case, although Eisenkot left to “present a governing alternative,” he does not change the bloc map. If he chooses not to run independently, he’ll need to decide whether to team up with Naftali Bennett or Avigdor Liberman, who both represent one side of the opposition bloc – or go with opposition leader Yair Lapid.
Join Lapid or run as an independent to change bloc map
According to the poll data, Eisenkot’s only path to reshaping the bloc map is to run independently or with Lapid. If he joins Bennett or Liberman, it strengthens the coalition bloc to 54 seats, compared to 56 for the opposition.
If he runs alone or with Lapid, the Religious Zionist Party will fail to pass the electoral threshold, and the coalition bloc stands at 51 seats versus 59 for the opposition.
Yet even a scenario where the opposition bloc holds 59 seats is seen as a win for Netanyahu. In last week’s poll, the opposition bloc had 61 seats – the minimum needed to form a government.
AS EXPECTED, Eisenkot’s move significantly hurt Benny Gantz, who now nears the electoral threshold with just four seats in any scenario where his former colleague partners with another player.
Gantz realized he must change strategy, rebrand the party, and launch a new campaign under the hashtag “#TheCourageToAgree” – as if extending a hand to Netanyahu, asking to join the government again.
Another noteworthy piece of data in the poll is that the Democrats receive 11 seats, whether or not Eisenkot runs independently. However, if Eisenkot teams up with Bennett or Lapid, the Democrats drop to 10, and a partnership with Liberman brings them down to nine.
Some say Netanyahu is already in campaign mode. Whether it’s eating falafel in Rishon LeZion, flying to Washington to lead a major regional initiative, or even visiting Kibbutz Nir Oz nearly two years after the October 7 massacre, he’s on the move.
If Eisenkot joins Bennett or Liberman, it would reduce Netanyahu’s gap to form a government to just seven seats – rather than 10 if the former IDF chief runs alone or joins Lapid.
That said, the Arab parties maintain 10 seats across all scenarios. Despite various statements from Zionist parties, a government can be formed with them, as has happened before.
In this context, MK Ahmad Tibi claims that efforts to expel Ayman Odeh from the Knesset are meant to suppress voter turnout in the Arab community. Indeed, after the Knesset committee approved the motion to expel Odeh, the Arab parties dropped from 11 to 10 seats. The Knesset will soon vote on Odeh’s removal. If 90 members vote in favor, he will be ousted.
The Maariv poll also examined other hot-button issues on the public agenda. In response to the question, “Do you support or oppose early elections for the Knesset?”, 50% of participants said they support it, 35% oppose it, and 15% said they had no opinion.
When participants in the poll were asked what they think should be done regarding Netanyahu’s trial, 25% said the trial should be continued until completion, 29% said to cancel the trial, 23% said to reach a plea deal or pardon on condition that Netanyahu retires from public life, and 13% said to reach a plea deal or pardon without conditions, while the remaining 10% said they didn’t know.